1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:07,000 [music playing] 2 00:00:16,933 --> 00:00:17,966 - WELCOME, EVERYBODY, 3 00:00:17,966 --> 00:00:20,366 TO THE 75th ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS 4 00:00:20,366 --> 00:00:22,033 HERE AT NASA AMES RESEARCH CENTER. 5 00:00:22,033 --> 00:00:24,766 THIS IS THE LAST TALK OF 18 TALKS 6 00:00:24,766 --> 00:00:26,766 PRESENTED BY THE OFFICE OF THE CHIEF SCIENTIST. 7 00:00:26,766 --> 00:00:30,766 SO NASA AMES RESEARCH CENTER HAS BEEN PURSUING 8 00:00:30,766 --> 00:00:33,066 SOME OF HUMANITY'S GRANDEST QUESTIONS, 9 00:00:33,066 --> 00:00:35,500 BOTH PHILOSOPHICALLY AND SCIENTIFICALLY, 10 00:00:35,500 --> 00:00:37,633 AND THOROUGHLY THROUGH A MULTIDISCIPLINARY 11 00:00:37,633 --> 00:00:40,900 AND INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE. 12 00:00:40,900 --> 00:00:44,300 ASTROBIOLOGY IS SEEN AS KIND OF A CROSS-CUTTING DISCIPLINE 13 00:00:44,300 --> 00:00:46,133 ACROSS MOST OF WHAT SCIENCE-- 14 00:00:46,133 --> 00:00:49,033 NASA SCIENCE MISSIONS HAVE DONE, 15 00:00:49,033 --> 00:00:52,233 AND KIND OF IN THE SPIRIT OF ASTROBIOLOGY, 16 00:00:52,233 --> 00:00:54,500 THERE ARE THREE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS 17 00:00:54,500 --> 00:00:56,100 THAT GENERALLY ARE ADDRESSED, 18 00:00:56,100 --> 00:00:58,266 AND IT'S, WHERE DID WE COME FROM? 19 00:00:58,266 --> 00:01:00,266 WHAT'S THE EVOLUTION OF LIFE? 20 00:01:00,266 --> 00:01:02,766 WHERE IS IT EVOLVING TO? 21 00:01:02,766 --> 00:01:05,500 IF WE ARE ALONE, THE SEARCH FOR LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE. 22 00:01:05,500 --> 00:01:08,566 AND, ULTIMATELY, ESTABLISHING WHERE WE'RE GOING NEXT 23 00:01:08,566 --> 00:01:11,566 AS AN INTERPLANETARY SPECIES. 24 00:01:11,566 --> 00:01:13,733 THE KEPLER MISSION WAS LAUNCHED IN 2009 25 00:01:13,733 --> 00:01:16,666 AND HAS RADICALLY ALTERED OUR VIEW 26 00:01:16,666 --> 00:01:19,500 OF PLANETS, PLANETARY SYSTEMS, AND OURSELVES REALLY. 27 00:01:19,500 --> 00:01:23,633 AND APPROXIMATELY, I THINK, 1 1/2 THOUSAND PLANETS 28 00:01:23,633 --> 00:01:24,900 HAVE BEEN DISCOVERED, 29 00:01:24,900 --> 00:01:26,233 AND WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THIS 30 00:01:26,233 --> 00:01:28,133 IS IT REALLY ADDRESSES THE SECOND QUESTION OF 31 00:01:28,133 --> 00:01:30,000 "IS THERE LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE?" 32 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:31,333 ARE THERE HABITABLE PLANETS? 33 00:01:31,333 --> 00:01:33,366 IS THERE INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE? 34 00:01:33,366 --> 00:01:36,666 DR. JON M. JENKINS RECEIVED HIS BACHELOR'S DEGREE 35 00:01:36,666 --> 00:01:38,666 IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND APPLIED MATH 36 00:01:38,666 --> 00:01:41,233 AT GEORGIA TECH INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, 37 00:01:41,233 --> 00:01:44,100 BOTH HIS MASTER'S AND Ph.D. IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING 38 00:01:44,100 --> 00:01:45,766 FROM GEORGIA TECH. 39 00:01:45,766 --> 00:01:47,466 HE CURRENTLY SERVES AS CO-INVESTIGATOR 40 00:01:47,466 --> 00:01:49,800 FOR DATA PROCESSING FOR BOTH THE KEPLER MISSION 41 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,100 AND THE UPCOMING TRANSITING EXOPLANET SURVEY SATELLITE, 42 00:01:53,100 --> 00:01:54,733 KNOWN AS TESS. 43 00:01:54,733 --> 00:01:56,500 TODAY'S TALK IS ENTITLED 44 00:01:56,500 --> 00:01:57,833 "CHASING SHADOW WORLDS: 45 00:01:57,833 --> 00:01:59,666 EXOPLANETS FROM KEPLER AND BEYOND." 46 00:01:59,666 --> 00:02:02,466 PLEASE JOIN ME IN WELCOMING DR. JON JENKINS. 47 00:02:02,466 --> 00:02:05,166 [applause] 48 00:02:10,666 --> 00:02:12,033 - WELL, GOOD AFTERNOON. 49 00:02:12,033 --> 00:02:15,700 THANK YOU FOR COMING TO SPEND THE AFTERNOON WITH ME. 50 00:02:15,700 --> 00:02:18,433 YOU MIGHT HAVE THOUGHT THAT EXOPLANETS GOT THEIR START 51 00:02:18,433 --> 00:02:19,800 IN 2009 WHEN KEPLER LAUNCHED, 52 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:21,566 AND I WOULDN'T BLAME YOU IF YOU THOUGHT THAT, 53 00:02:21,566 --> 00:02:25,333 BUT, ACTUALLY, IT STARTED MUCH EARLIER. 54 00:02:25,333 --> 00:02:28,100 BUT CAN ANY OF YOU REMEMBER WHAT LIFE WAS LIKE BEFORE EXOPLANETS? 55 00:02:28,100 --> 00:02:29,666 AND THIS IS ACTUALLY A PICTURE OF MYSELF 56 00:02:29,666 --> 00:02:31,500 TWO YEARS INTO MY TENURE 57 00:02:31,500 --> 00:02:33,266 WITH THE SETI INSTITUTE HERE AT AMES, 58 00:02:33,266 --> 00:02:34,766 WHEN I WAS THINKING OF ALIEN WORLDS, 59 00:02:34,766 --> 00:02:36,266 BUT I WAS THINKING MAINLY OF VENUS. 60 00:02:36,266 --> 00:02:38,266 I HAD COME HERE TO CONTINUE MY RESEARCH 61 00:02:38,266 --> 00:02:41,000 INTO REMOTE SENSING OF PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES. 62 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,833 AT THE TIME, I WAS WORKING ON PIONEER VENUS DATA, 63 00:02:43,833 --> 00:02:45,166 AND MAGELLAN WAS IN ORBIT, 64 00:02:45,166 --> 00:02:46,700 AND I WAS WORKING ON MAGELLAN DATA. 65 00:02:46,700 --> 00:02:49,800 IT WAS A FASCINATING, EXCITING TIME TO BE HERE, 66 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:51,566 BECAUSE I'D GONE TO GEORGIA TECH. 67 00:02:51,566 --> 00:02:53,433 MY ADVISOR WAS THE ONLY PROFESSOR 68 00:02:53,433 --> 00:02:55,900 DOING SPACE RESEARCH ON THE CAMPUS, 69 00:02:55,900 --> 00:02:57,166 AND, SUDDENLY, I WAS HERE 70 00:02:57,166 --> 00:02:59,066 AND SURROUNDED BY LOTS OF PLANETARY SCIENTISTS, 71 00:02:59,066 --> 00:03:00,566 ASTRONOMERS, GEOPHYSICISTS. 72 00:03:00,566 --> 00:03:02,800 IT WAS AN EXCITING TIME. 73 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,033 BUT IN OCTOBER OF 1994, 74 00:03:05,033 --> 00:03:06,566 BOTH PIONEER VENUS AND MAGELLAN 75 00:03:06,566 --> 00:03:07,933 CRASHED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE OF VENUS, 76 00:03:07,933 --> 00:03:09,400 ENDING THEIR SOJOURN, 77 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:14,200 AND SO I WAS HIGH AND DRY WITHOUT A DATA SOURCE. 78 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,200 I DID INDEED FALL INTO BAD COMPANY 79 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,200 BACK CIRCA 1988, 1989, 80 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:22,133 WHEN I WAS STARTING TO WORK ON THE PIONEER VENUS DATA, 81 00:03:22,133 --> 00:03:23,400 AND I MET BILL BORUCKI, 82 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,566 WHO BECAME THE P.I. FOR KEPLER, OF COURSE, 83 00:03:26,566 --> 00:03:27,700 BUT HE WAS A CO-INVESTIGATOR 84 00:03:27,700 --> 00:03:29,633 ON PIONEER VENUS STUDYING LIGHTNING, 85 00:03:29,633 --> 00:03:33,000 SO HE AND I GO WAY BACK. 86 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,533 IN 1994, IT WAS ALSO A WATERSHED MOMENT FOR MYSELF, 87 00:03:35,533 --> 00:03:37,266 BECAUSE ANOTHER PERSON, LAURANCE DOYLE, 88 00:03:37,266 --> 00:03:40,066 WHOM I MET MY FIRST DAY ON CAMPUS HERE, 89 00:03:40,066 --> 00:03:41,566 ALSO WORKED FOR SETI INSTITUTE, 90 00:03:41,566 --> 00:03:44,500 BECAME INVOLVED WITH AN INTERNATIONAL COALITION 91 00:03:44,500 --> 00:03:46,466 OF ASTRONOMERS WHO WERE INTERESTED IN FINDING 92 00:03:46,466 --> 00:03:49,300 TRANSITING PLANETS AROUND BINARY STARS, 93 00:03:49,300 --> 00:03:50,666 AND THEY HAD PICKED THE SMALLEST KNOWN 94 00:03:50,666 --> 00:03:53,600 ECLIPSING BINARY AT THE TIME, CM DRAC, TO OBSERVE, 95 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,166 AND THEY NEEDED SOMEBODY TO COME UP WITH A DETECTION ALGORITHM. 96 00:03:56,166 --> 00:03:57,666 I'D GO TO LUNCH WITH THESE GUYS, 97 00:03:57,666 --> 00:03:59,833 AND THEY WOULD COMPLAIN ABOUT HOW HARD IT WAS 98 00:03:59,833 --> 00:04:01,466 TO COME UP WITH A DETECTION ALGORITHM, 99 00:04:01,466 --> 00:04:03,800 AND I GOT INTERESTED, AND IT WAS A REAL PUZZLE. 100 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:05,566 BUT WE NEVER GOT FUNDING. 101 00:04:05,566 --> 00:04:07,066 WE OBSERVED FOR SIX YEARS. 102 00:04:07,066 --> 00:04:08,500 I DID WRITE DETECTION ALGORITHMS. 103 00:04:08,500 --> 00:04:10,433 THEY WORKED. WE PUT GOOD UPPER LIMITS 104 00:04:10,433 --> 00:04:12,133 ON ANY PLANETS THAT WERE THERE. 105 00:04:12,133 --> 00:04:13,466 BUT THAT WORK BROUGHT ME TO THE ATTENTION 106 00:04:13,466 --> 00:04:14,600 OF BILL BORUCKI LATER, 107 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:17,700 WHO THEN ASKED ME TO JOIN HIS TEAM. 108 00:04:17,700 --> 00:04:20,933 NOW, IN 1994, HERE IS A PICTURE 109 00:04:20,933 --> 00:04:22,433 OF ALL THE KNOWN PLANETS IN THE UNIVERSE. 110 00:04:22,433 --> 00:04:25,366 OF COURSE, THERE IS ONE EXTRA THAT WE GOT RID OF LATER, 111 00:04:25,366 --> 00:04:26,766 BUT, YOU KNOW, DWARVES ARE PEOPLE, 112 00:04:26,766 --> 00:04:28,700 SO DWARF PLANETS ARE PLANETS, TOO. 113 00:04:28,700 --> 00:04:33,233 AT ANY RATE, WE THOUGHT THAT ALL THE GAS GIANTS 114 00:04:33,233 --> 00:04:35,400 WOULD BE FOUND IN THE OUTER PART OF A SOLAR SYSTEM 115 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,366 WHEN WE WERE FINDING PLANETS, BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO FORM THERE. 116 00:04:38,366 --> 00:04:40,600 IT'S TOO HOT INTERIOR TO ABOUT 5 A.U. 117 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,300 FOR WATER TO EXIST 118 00:04:42,300 --> 00:04:43,800 AND FOR YOU TO GET WATER AND ICE, 119 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:45,000 THAT KIND OF THING. 120 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:46,800 SO WE KNEW THAT GIANT PLANETS 121 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:48,800 HAD TO EXIST IN THE OUTER PART OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM 122 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,233 AND THAT THE ROCKY PLANETS, ONES THAT WE CAN STAND ON, 123 00:04:51,233 --> 00:04:53,566 HAD TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STAR. 124 00:04:53,566 --> 00:04:55,600 AND ALL THE MODELS THAT WE'D COME UP WITH 125 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:57,166 PREDICTED THAT THAT WOULD BE THE CASE. 126 00:04:57,166 --> 00:04:58,466 SO ONE OF THE THEMES-- 127 00:04:58,466 --> 00:05:00,300 I'LL TRY TO REMEMBER TO SAY IT MORE THAN ONCE-- 128 00:05:00,300 --> 00:05:02,700 IS THAT IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO EXTRAPOLATE 129 00:05:02,700 --> 00:05:04,900 FROM A SAMPLE OF ONE, 130 00:05:04,900 --> 00:05:06,166 AND YOU OFTEN GET IT WRONG. 131 00:05:06,166 --> 00:05:08,200 EXPERTS BECOME FOOLS QUITE QUICKLY 132 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,900 ONCE THEY START TO EXTRAPOLATE. 133 00:05:10,900 --> 00:05:12,566 NOW, HERE'S THE PICTURE WE HAVE TODAY, 134 00:05:12,566 --> 00:05:14,200 OR AT LEAST AS OF ABOUT TWO YEARS AGO. 135 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,166 THIS IS AN "xkcd" CARTOON, 136 00:05:16,166 --> 00:05:19,366 AND IT SHOWS ALL 768 KNOWN PLANETS AT THAT TIME 137 00:05:19,366 --> 00:05:21,400 DRAWN TO SCALE, AND IF YOU LOOK CLOSELY, 138 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:22,766 YOU CAN FIND THE SOLAR SYSTEM. 139 00:05:22,766 --> 00:05:24,433 YOU CAN SEE THAT MOST PLANETS DETECTED 140 00:05:24,433 --> 00:05:25,900 UP TO THIS POINT IN TIME 141 00:05:25,900 --> 00:05:28,333 LOOK NOTHING LIKE THE PLANETS IN OUR OWN SOLAR SYSTEM. 142 00:05:28,333 --> 00:05:30,033 HERE'S SOME HELP FOR YOU. 143 00:05:30,033 --> 00:05:31,766 HERE'S OUR SOLAR SYSTEM RIGHT HERE, 144 00:05:31,766 --> 00:05:34,433 AND YOU CAN SEE JUPITER IS NOT THE BIGGEST BULLY ON THE BLOCK. 145 00:05:34,433 --> 00:05:37,266 THERE ARE A LOT OF PLANETS THAT ARE MUCH BIGGER THAN JUPITER. 146 00:05:37,266 --> 00:05:38,866 INDEED, THE FIRST PLANETS WE FOUND 147 00:05:38,866 --> 00:05:40,000 WERE MUCH BIGGER THAN JUPITER 148 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:41,533 AND MUCH CLOSER TO THEIR STAR 149 00:05:41,533 --> 00:05:44,600 THAN JUPITER IS TO OURS. 150 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,866 AND THERE ARE A FEW SMALL SPECKS HERE 151 00:05:46,866 --> 00:05:50,500 THAT ARE COMPARABLE IN SIZE TO EARTH OR THEREABOUTS 152 00:05:50,500 --> 00:05:51,700 WITHIN A FACTOR OF TWO. 153 00:05:51,700 --> 00:05:53,700 THOSE WERE KEPLER DISCOVERIES, OF COURSE. 154 00:05:53,700 --> 00:05:55,700 WELL, HOW DOES KEPLER WORK? 155 00:05:55,700 --> 00:05:56,733 IT'S VERY SIMPLE. 156 00:05:56,733 --> 00:05:58,633 WE LOOK TO WATCH FOR OCCASIONS 157 00:05:58,633 --> 00:06:00,633 WHEN A STAR BLINKS AT US 158 00:06:00,633 --> 00:06:03,500 AS A PLANET CROSSES THE FACE OF THE STAR. 159 00:06:03,500 --> 00:06:05,866 WE DON'T IMAGE THE STAR OR RESOLVE IT. 160 00:06:05,866 --> 00:06:07,566 WE MEASURE THE BRIGHTNESS AS A FUNCTION OF TIME, 161 00:06:07,566 --> 00:06:09,700 LOOKING FOR THESE DIPS IN BRIGHTNESS 162 00:06:09,700 --> 00:06:12,100 CORRESPONDING TO THOSE TIMES. 163 00:06:12,100 --> 00:06:14,866 THE DEPTH OF THE TRANSIT IS THE RELATIVE AREA 164 00:06:14,866 --> 00:06:16,633 OF THE PLANET TO THE STAR. 165 00:06:16,633 --> 00:06:18,133 IF THEY BLOCK 1% OF THE LIGHT, 166 00:06:18,133 --> 00:06:21,766 THEN THE PLANET'S AREA IS 1% OF THAT OF THE DISK OF THE STAR. 167 00:06:21,766 --> 00:06:23,566 IT WILL REPEAT ONCE PER ORBIT, 168 00:06:23,566 --> 00:06:26,166 AND SO THE INTERVAL OF TIME BETWEEN THE TWO TRANSITS 169 00:06:26,166 --> 00:06:27,533 TELLS YOU THE YEAR. 170 00:06:27,533 --> 00:06:29,233 IF YOU KNOW THE MASS OF THE STAR, 171 00:06:29,233 --> 00:06:31,700 THEN THAT PERIOD, TOGETHER WITH KEPLER'S LAWS, 172 00:06:31,700 --> 00:06:32,800 GIVES YOU THE DISTANCE, 173 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,066 THE MEAN DISTANCE TO THE PLANET. 174 00:06:34,066 --> 00:06:35,366 THAT, TOGETHER WITH THE SIZE 175 00:06:35,366 --> 00:06:37,066 AND THE EFFECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF THE STAR, 176 00:06:37,066 --> 00:06:39,500 ALLOW YOU TO ESTIMATE THAT EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURE 177 00:06:39,500 --> 00:06:42,033 THAT THE PLANET IS EXPERIENCING, SO THAT WE CAN ESTIMATE 178 00:06:42,033 --> 00:06:43,833 THE RANGE OF DISTANCES FROM A STAR 179 00:06:43,833 --> 00:06:45,100 FOR WHICH LIQUID WATER 180 00:06:45,100 --> 00:06:47,033 WOULD POOL ON THE SURFACE OF THAT PLANET. 181 00:06:47,033 --> 00:06:49,200 AND THAT'S KNOWN AS THE HABITABLE ZONE. 182 00:06:54,733 --> 00:06:57,533 SO I MENTIONED THAT I'D WORKED FOR ABOUT SIX YEARS 183 00:06:57,533 --> 00:07:00,500 WITH LAURANCE DOYLE, TRYING TO GET FUNDING 184 00:07:00,500 --> 00:07:03,700 TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF REVENUE FOR OURSELVES, 185 00:07:03,700 --> 00:07:07,266 BUT ALSO FOR A SMALL TELESCOPE UP AT LICK OBSERVATORY 186 00:07:07,266 --> 00:07:09,233 AT THE CROSSLEY DOME, TO LOOK FOR PLANETS 187 00:07:09,233 --> 00:07:10,900 AROUND A SMALL ECLIPSING BINARY, 188 00:07:10,900 --> 00:07:12,533 AND WE GOT REJECTED EVERY TIME. 189 00:07:12,533 --> 00:07:13,766 SOME OF THE REJECTIONS WERE, 190 00:07:13,766 --> 00:07:15,466 "BINARY STARS DON'T HAVE PLANETS." 191 00:07:15,466 --> 00:07:19,100 SOME OF THE REJECTIONS WERE, "'M' STARS DON'T HAVE PLANETS," 192 00:07:19,100 --> 00:07:22,333 AND SO EVEN THE EXPERTS WHO WERE READING OUR... 193 00:07:22,333 --> 00:07:26,466 OUR PROPOSALS REALLY DIDN'T KNOW WHAT WAS WHAT. 194 00:07:26,466 --> 00:07:28,633 AND, IN FACT, MOST OF WHAT WE THOUGHT WE UNDERSTOOD 195 00:07:28,633 --> 00:07:31,233 ABOUT PLANETS, LIKE MUCH OF PHYSICS AND SPACE, 196 00:07:31,233 --> 00:07:34,133 IT MAY BE PARTIALLY RIGHT, BUT IT'S OFTEN WRONG. 197 00:07:34,133 --> 00:07:36,900 BUT KEPLER-16b, AKA "TATOOINE," 198 00:07:36,900 --> 00:07:40,033 WAS THE FIRST CONFIRMED TRANSITING CIRCUMBINARY PLANET 199 00:07:40,033 --> 00:07:41,266 ORBITING TWO STARS. 200 00:07:41,266 --> 00:07:43,100 ONE OF THEM IS A SMALL "M" STAR. 201 00:07:43,100 --> 00:07:45,466 AND LAURANCE IS REALLY A VISIONARY. 202 00:07:45,466 --> 00:07:47,166 HE'S A FASCINATING MAN. 203 00:07:47,166 --> 00:07:49,600 HE WAS THE FIRST I HEARD IN A PUBLIC FORUM TO PREDICT 204 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,633 THAT WE WOULD ACTUALLY LEARN ABOUT PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES 205 00:07:52,633 --> 00:07:54,366 OF ALIEN WORLDS 206 00:07:54,366 --> 00:07:58,100 THROUGH TRANSIT TRANSMISSION SPECTROSCOPY. 207 00:07:58,100 --> 00:08:00,400 AND I'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT LATER. 208 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:02,500 BUT AT THE TIME, A VERY RENOWNED SCIENTIST 209 00:08:02,500 --> 00:08:04,866 GOT UP AND SAID, "IT'LL NEVER WORK." 210 00:08:04,866 --> 00:08:06,533 OF COURSE, IT HAS. 211 00:08:06,533 --> 00:08:09,200 AND, INDEED, WITHIN THE FIRST SIX 212 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,166 CIRCUMBINARY PLANETARY SYSTEMS THAT WE'D FOUND-- 213 00:08:11,166 --> 00:08:12,766 CASES WHERE YOU FIND A PLANET 214 00:08:12,766 --> 00:08:15,833 ORBITING OUTSIDE OF TWO STARS IN A VERY TIGHT ORBIT-- 215 00:08:15,833 --> 00:08:21,000 KEPLER-47c WAS DISCOVERED ORBITING IN THE HABITABLE ZONE 216 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,866 OF ITS STAR. 217 00:08:22,866 --> 00:08:24,700 AND THAT'S FASCINATING, BECAUSE WE FOUND 218 00:08:24,700 --> 00:08:27,800 MANY, MANY, MANY PLANETS ORBITING SINGLE STARS 219 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,000 BEFORE WE FOUND THE FIRST ONE 220 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:30,633 THAT WAS IN THE HABITABLE ZONE OF ITS STAR, 221 00:08:30,633 --> 00:08:32,500 WHEREAS IT ONLY TOOK ABOUT SIX TRIES 222 00:08:32,500 --> 00:08:35,500 FOR A CIRCUMBINARY SYSTEM TO BE FOUND 223 00:08:35,500 --> 00:08:37,333 WHERE A PLANET WAS IN THE HABITABLE ZONE. 224 00:08:37,333 --> 00:08:40,266 NOW, KEPLER-47c IS NOT A HABITABLE PLANET, 225 00:08:40,266 --> 00:08:43,233 BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A MOON THAT COULD BE HABITABLE. 226 00:08:43,233 --> 00:08:44,633 AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, 227 00:08:44,633 --> 00:08:47,933 THREE OUT OF EVERY TWO STARS YOU LOOK UP AT THE SKY AT 228 00:08:47,933 --> 00:08:49,166 ARE BINARY STARS. 229 00:08:51,900 --> 00:08:57,700 WELL, 1995 WAS THE YEAR THAT THE FIRST EXTRASOLAR PLANET 230 00:08:57,700 --> 00:09:00,066 WAS DISCOVERED ORBITING A MAIN SEQUENCE STAR 231 00:09:00,066 --> 00:09:01,833 THAT WAS RECOGNIZED AS SUCH, 232 00:09:01,833 --> 00:09:03,333 BUT IT WAS ALSO THE YEAR-- EARLIER THAT YEAR, 233 00:09:03,333 --> 00:09:05,566 WE HAD THE ExNPS REPORT AND WE HAD THE ExNPS WORKSHOP. 234 00:09:05,566 --> 00:09:08,666 THIS WAS "EXPLORATION OF NEIGHBORING PLANETARY SYSTEMS." 235 00:09:08,666 --> 00:09:10,933 AND THEY WORKED OUT A ROAD MAP OF TECHNOLOGY 236 00:09:10,933 --> 00:09:13,566 THAT WOULD TAKE US FROM DETECTING PLANETS, 237 00:09:13,566 --> 00:09:14,866 LEARNING ABOUT THEIR ORBITS, 238 00:09:14,866 --> 00:09:16,466 TO DIRECT IMAGING TO SPECTROSCOPY 239 00:09:16,466 --> 00:09:19,066 TO LEARNING WHAT'S IN THEIR ATMOSPHERES. 240 00:09:19,066 --> 00:09:21,233 A LOT OF PEOPLE WORKED ON THIS. 241 00:09:21,233 --> 00:09:24,700 THEY HAD A ROAD MAP HERE OF TECHNOLOGIES. 242 00:09:24,700 --> 00:09:26,900 SEE? THEY'RE DOING RADIO VELOCITY, ASTROMETRY, 243 00:09:26,900 --> 00:09:30,800 DISKS, DIRECT IMAGING OF JUPITERS, 244 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,000 MORE SPECTROSCOPY, DETAILED IMAGING. 245 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:35,100 BUT WHERE ARE TRANSITS? 246 00:09:35,100 --> 00:09:36,333 TRANSITS ARE NOWHERE. 247 00:09:36,333 --> 00:09:39,500 AT THAT TIME, TRANSIT PHOTOMETRY WAS CONTROVERSIAL. 248 00:09:39,500 --> 00:09:41,266 A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE FIELD, 249 00:09:41,266 --> 00:09:44,366 VERY BRIGHT TECHNICAL PEOPLE, THOUGHT IT COULD NOT BE DONE. 250 00:09:44,366 --> 00:09:47,900 THEY DIDN'T THINK THAT CCDs LIKE THIS ONE... 251 00:09:47,900 --> 00:09:50,533 THIS IS ONE OF THE CCDs THAT WE USED IN THE LABORATORY 252 00:09:50,533 --> 00:09:53,066 TO DEMONSTRATE THAT CCD PHOTOMETRY 253 00:09:53,066 --> 00:09:55,033 CAN ACHIEVE THE PRECISION NECESSARY 254 00:09:55,033 --> 00:09:57,333 TO DETECT SMALL EARTH-SIZE PLANETS. 255 00:09:57,333 --> 00:10:01,266 YOU NEED TO ACHIEVE A PRECISION OF ABOUT TEN PARTS PER MILLION 256 00:10:01,266 --> 00:10:02,833 FROM THE INSTRUMENT NOISE PERSPECTIVE 257 00:10:02,833 --> 00:10:04,166 TO BE ABLE TO DO THAT. 258 00:10:06,633 --> 00:10:10,033 WELL, SO, I HAD MORE HAIR BEFORE PLANETS--EXOPLANETS. 259 00:10:10,033 --> 00:10:11,100 I HAVE LESS HAIR HERE. 260 00:10:11,100 --> 00:10:12,400 I LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE SERIOUS. 261 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,466 THAT'S PROBABLY BECAUSE BILL IS A REAL WORKHORSE, 262 00:10:14,466 --> 00:10:16,966 AND I'M WORKING FOR BILL NOW. 263 00:10:16,966 --> 00:10:18,666 SO I WAS THINKING A LOT ABOUT PLANETS, 264 00:10:18,666 --> 00:10:21,133 AND, INDEED, I WAS A SKEPTIC AT FIRST, TOO. 265 00:10:21,133 --> 00:10:24,033 PEOPLE SAID, "WHAT ABOUT STAR SPOTS?" 266 00:10:24,033 --> 00:10:26,000 PEOPLE HAD ALL KINDS OF... 267 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,866 ALL KINDS OF QUESTIONS, TECHNICAL QUESTIONS, 268 00:10:27,866 --> 00:10:30,033 ABOUT WHAT COULD POSSIBLY BE THE STRAW 269 00:10:30,033 --> 00:10:31,366 THAT BREAKS THE CAMEL'S BACK. 270 00:10:31,366 --> 00:10:33,066 AND ONE BY ONE, WE SET UP THOSE DOMINOS 271 00:10:33,066 --> 00:10:34,366 AND KNOCKED THEM DOWN, 272 00:10:34,366 --> 00:10:35,533 AND AFTER ABOUT A YEAR, 273 00:10:35,533 --> 00:10:37,200 I WAS CONVINCED THAT WE COULD DO THIS. 274 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:41,166 SOMEWHAT LATER--WE TOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE EFFORT 275 00:10:41,166 --> 00:10:43,266 TO CONVINCE OUR COLLEAGUES AND CONVINCE NASA 276 00:10:43,266 --> 00:10:44,966 THAT WE WERE WORTHY OF FUNDING, 277 00:10:44,966 --> 00:10:48,033 SO DAVID KOCH TOOK THE CONSOLATION PRIZE. 278 00:10:48,033 --> 00:10:50,333 IN THE '96 DISCOVERY PROPOSAL CYCLE, 279 00:10:50,333 --> 00:10:51,766 WE WERE NOT SELECTED, 280 00:10:51,766 --> 00:10:54,766 BUT WE DID GET $500,000 TO USE TO DO 281 00:10:54,766 --> 00:10:56,900 A HARDWARE-BASED LABORATORY DEMONSTRATION. 282 00:10:56,900 --> 00:11:00,300 SO THIS IS THE LABORATORY SETUP THAT DAVID KOCH DESIGNED, 283 00:11:00,300 --> 00:11:01,733 AND THAT WE BUILT AND THEN OPERATED, 284 00:11:01,733 --> 00:11:02,966 AND HE LED THE WHOLE EFFORT. 285 00:11:02,966 --> 00:11:04,500 THERE'S A TELESCOPE, 286 00:11:04,500 --> 00:11:07,333 THERE'S AN INTEGRATING SPHERE TO ILLUMINATE A STAR PLATE HERE 287 00:11:07,333 --> 00:11:08,633 WITH HOLES FOR THE STARS. 288 00:11:08,633 --> 00:11:10,900 THEY GET IMAGED ONTO A CCD LIKE THIS ONE. 289 00:11:10,900 --> 00:11:13,766 ACTUALLY, IT WAS A MARCONI, A LITTLE BIT LATER DEVICE, 290 00:11:13,766 --> 00:11:17,133 AND THEN DAVE CAME UP WITH THIS INGENIOUS WAY 291 00:11:17,133 --> 00:11:19,166 TO CREATE TRANSITS, AND AS FAR AS I KNOW, 292 00:11:19,166 --> 00:11:22,433 IT'S THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN CREATE EARTH-SIZE TRANSITS 293 00:11:22,433 --> 00:11:25,100 IN THE LABORATORY IN A ROBUST, REPEATABLE WAY. 294 00:11:25,100 --> 00:11:28,300 BUT YOU PUT A RIBBON WIRE ACROSS A LASER-MILLED HOLE, 295 00:11:28,300 --> 00:11:30,133 AND YOU PUT A COUPLE OF MILLIAMPS THROUGH THAT. 296 00:11:30,133 --> 00:11:32,366 IT EXPANDS BY ONE ATOM, AND THAT'S ENOUGH TO BLOCK 297 00:11:32,366 --> 00:11:35,733 1 PART IN 10,000 OF THE LIGHT THAT'S COMING THROUGH THAT HOLE. 298 00:11:35,733 --> 00:11:37,566 AND SO DOWN HERE ARE SOME OF THE LIGHT CURVES 299 00:11:37,566 --> 00:11:39,833 THAT WE WERE ABLE TO OBTAIN IN THE LABORATORY 300 00:11:39,833 --> 00:11:41,266 WITH THIS DEVICE, 301 00:11:41,266 --> 00:11:43,466 DEMONSTRATING THE SIGNAL- TO-NOISE THAT WE COULD ACHIEVE 302 00:11:43,466 --> 00:11:45,833 AGAINST THE INSTRUMENTAL NOISE 303 00:11:45,833 --> 00:11:49,966 FOR STARS ON THE STAR PLATE IN THAT SETUP. 304 00:11:49,966 --> 00:11:54,100 THAT, TOGETHER WITH THE DISCOVERY OF 51 PEG, 305 00:11:54,100 --> 00:11:56,400 AND THEN LATER, IN 2000, OF COURSE, 306 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,333 WE DISCOVERED THE FIRST TRANSITING EXTRASOLAR PLANET, 307 00:11:59,333 --> 00:12:01,566 HD 209458b. 308 00:12:01,566 --> 00:12:03,833 THAT WAS VERY IMPORTANT, BECAUSE AT THE TIME, 309 00:12:03,833 --> 00:12:05,166 THERE WERE STILL A LOT OF SKEPTICS 310 00:12:05,166 --> 00:12:07,466 WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER THESE EXTRASOLAR PLANETS 311 00:12:07,466 --> 00:12:08,700 WERE ACTUALLY PLANETS. 312 00:12:08,700 --> 00:12:10,866 PERHAPS, YES, THEY'RE SUBSTELLAR MASS, 313 00:12:10,866 --> 00:12:14,166 BUT PERHAPS THEY FORM MUCH MORE LIKE BINARY STARS FORM 314 00:12:14,166 --> 00:12:16,266 THAN LIKE PLANETS FORM. 315 00:12:16,266 --> 00:12:18,233 AND IT TOOK A WHILE FOR THEORY TO CATCH UP 316 00:12:18,233 --> 00:12:21,100 AND FOR US TO HAVE GOOD WAYS TO PREDICT AND MODEL 317 00:12:21,100 --> 00:12:24,766 THE VOYAGE OF GIANT PLANETS AS THEY TRANSIT-- 318 00:12:24,766 --> 00:12:26,566 AS THEY TRANSITION AND MIGRATE 319 00:12:26,566 --> 00:12:28,933 FROM THE OUTER SOLAR SYSTEM TO THE INNER SOLAR SYSTEM. 320 00:12:28,933 --> 00:12:30,366 A LOT OF THEM TEND TO BRAKE AND STOP 321 00:12:30,366 --> 00:12:32,266 IN A THREE-DAY PERIOD ORBIT. 322 00:12:32,266 --> 00:12:33,933 SO I WANT TO SHARE SOME OF THE KEY SCIENCE RESULTS 323 00:12:33,933 --> 00:12:35,566 FROM KEPLER WITH YOU. 324 00:12:35,566 --> 00:12:37,400 I'M NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO PLAY ALL THE GREATEST HITS, 325 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,766 BUT I'M GOING TO TRY TO HIT SOME OF THEM. 326 00:12:39,766 --> 00:12:42,800 SO THIS SPEAKS MORE TO THE IMPACT 327 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,500 THAT KEPLER HAS HAD ON THE FIELD OF EXTRASOLAR PLANETS. 328 00:12:45,500 --> 00:12:47,566 THIS IS THE FIRST EXTRASOLAR PLANET. 329 00:12:47,566 --> 00:12:49,600 1989 WAS THE YEAR THIS WAS DISCOVERED, 330 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,000 BUT IT WASN'T RECOGNIZED FOR SOME TIME 331 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,033 TO ACTUALLY BE A PLANET. 332 00:12:52,033 --> 00:12:53,066 THERE WAS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER 333 00:12:53,066 --> 00:12:54,800 IT WAS A BROWN DWARF OR WHAT. 334 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:55,933 BUT, INDEED, LATER ON, 335 00:12:55,933 --> 00:12:57,433 THAT PROVED TO BE, INDEED, THE CASE, 336 00:12:57,433 --> 00:12:59,966 AND THAT'S DUE TO DAVE LATHAM. 337 00:12:59,966 --> 00:13:01,900 BUT IF WE LOOK AT ALL THE PLANETS 338 00:13:01,900 --> 00:13:04,733 THAT WERE DISCOVERED OUTSIDE OUR SOLAR SYSTEM 339 00:13:04,733 --> 00:13:07,700 NOT FROM KEPLER THROUGH 2012, 340 00:13:07,700 --> 00:13:09,033 THEN WE HAVE A WHOLE BUNCH 341 00:13:09,033 --> 00:13:11,500 DETECTED BY RADIO VELOCITY TECHNIQUES 342 00:13:11,500 --> 00:13:13,533 WHERE YOU LOOK FOR THE REFLEX VELOCITY, 343 00:13:13,533 --> 00:13:15,100 KIND OF LIKE A SPEED GUN, 344 00:13:15,100 --> 00:13:17,433 TO LOOK FOR A VARIATION IN THE VELOCITY OF THE STAR 345 00:13:17,433 --> 00:13:19,633 AS IT ORBITS THE COMMON BARYCENTER. 346 00:13:19,633 --> 00:13:22,666 AND THAT BY FAR WAS THE MOST SUCCESSFUL METHOD 347 00:13:22,666 --> 00:13:24,433 IN TERMS OF THE BULK NUMBERS 348 00:13:24,433 --> 00:13:27,866 AND ALSO REACHING DOWN RELIABLY TO SMALL MASSES. 349 00:13:27,866 --> 00:13:30,500 THESE ARE THE TRANSITING PLANETS THAT WERE DISCOVERED 350 00:13:30,500 --> 00:13:31,733 LARGELY FROM THE GROUND. 351 00:13:31,733 --> 00:13:33,933 IT'S HARD TO DETECT AN EARTH-SIZE PLANET 352 00:13:33,933 --> 00:13:36,066 BY TRANSIT OR ANY OTHER METHOD. 353 00:13:36,066 --> 00:13:38,266 EARTH COVERS 1 PART IN 10,000, 354 00:13:38,266 --> 00:13:40,766 A PERCENT OF A PERCENT, OF THE AREA OF THE SUN. 355 00:13:40,766 --> 00:13:42,433 JUPITER COVERS 1%. 356 00:13:42,433 --> 00:13:43,900 YOU CAN ACHIEVE THAT EASILY 357 00:13:43,900 --> 00:13:47,900 USING A CCD IN YOUR BACKYARD WITH AMATEUR EQUIPMENT TODAY. 358 00:13:47,900 --> 00:13:50,200 SO THERE ARE--THERE WERE 359 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,033 APPROXIMATELY 70 TRANSITING PLANETS 360 00:13:52,033 --> 00:13:54,500 THAT WERE DISCOVERED BEFORE KEPLER FLEW, 361 00:13:54,500 --> 00:13:57,133 BUT YOU SEE THEY'RE STILL MORE OR LESS MORIBUND 362 00:13:57,133 --> 00:14:00,200 UP HERE NEAR JUPITER IN TERMS OF THEIR SIZE 363 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,833 AND LIMITED TO A FEW DAYS OR SO AN ORBITAL PERIOD. 364 00:14:03,833 --> 00:14:06,500 THIS ONE POINT HERE IS COROT-7b, 365 00:14:06,500 --> 00:14:09,366 AND THAT WAS ACTUALLY OBTAINED FROM THE COROT SPACECRAFT, 366 00:14:09,366 --> 00:14:11,700 WHICH LAUNCHED IN 2007-- 367 00:14:11,700 --> 00:14:14,066 OR AT THE END OF 2006. 368 00:14:14,066 --> 00:14:17,066 AND THEN THERE ARE SOME MICROLENSING PLANETS. 369 00:14:17,066 --> 00:14:18,900 THEY HAVE LONG PERIODS BECAUSE THEY'RE DETECTED 370 00:14:18,900 --> 00:14:20,833 TYPICALLY VERY FAR FROM THEIR STAR-- 371 00:14:20,833 --> 00:14:22,133 TWO A.U. OR FURTHER-- 372 00:14:22,133 --> 00:14:24,366 AND WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME DIRECT IMAGING. 373 00:14:24,366 --> 00:14:25,533 AND WE SAW THAT DIRECT IMAGING 374 00:14:25,533 --> 00:14:27,566 WAS CALLED OUT ON THE ROAD MAP BY ExNPS, 375 00:14:27,566 --> 00:14:29,233 AND SO ExNPS GOT A LOT OF IT RIGHT, 376 00:14:29,233 --> 00:14:30,633 BUT THEY GOT SOME OF THE DETAILS WRONG, 377 00:14:30,633 --> 00:14:32,666 LIKE WE ALL DO WHEN WE PROGNOSTICATE. 378 00:14:32,666 --> 00:14:34,933 THIS IS WHAT KEPLER HAS DONE TO THE FIELD. 379 00:14:34,933 --> 00:14:36,833 SO NOW WE HAVE-- I THINK IN THIS CASE, 380 00:14:36,833 --> 00:14:38,200 THIS IS ABOUT 3,400, 381 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:41,333 BUT TODAY, WE HAVE OVER 4,000 CANDIDATES, 382 00:14:41,333 --> 00:14:44,233 950 OR SO CONFIRMED OR VALIDATED PLANETS, 383 00:14:44,233 --> 00:14:45,966 AND YOU SEE WE'VE REALLY PUSHED THE ENVELOPE DOWN 384 00:14:45,966 --> 00:14:48,533 SO THAT THE BULK OF OUR PLANETS THAT WE'RE DISCOVERING 385 00:14:48,533 --> 00:14:49,900 ARE SMALLER THAN NEPTUNE. 386 00:14:49,900 --> 00:14:52,633 IN FACT, MOST OF THEM ARE TWO EARTH RADII 387 00:14:52,633 --> 00:14:54,133 OR SMALLER, THEREABOUTS. 388 00:14:54,133 --> 00:14:56,700 AND WE DON'T HAVE TWO EARTH RADIUS PLANETS 389 00:14:56,700 --> 00:14:57,900 IN OUR SOLAR SYSTEM, 390 00:14:57,900 --> 00:14:59,566 SO THESE ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT BEASTS 391 00:14:59,566 --> 00:15:02,566 FROM THOSE THAT PLANETARY SCIENTISTS LIKE MYSELF 392 00:15:02,566 --> 00:15:04,366 GREW TO KNOW AND LOVE 393 00:15:04,366 --> 00:15:06,300 THROUGH OUR VOYAGES THROUGH THE SOLAR SYSTEM 394 00:15:06,300 --> 00:15:10,333 ON THE PLANETARY PROBES THAT NASA'S LAUNCHED AND ESA. 395 00:15:10,333 --> 00:15:12,066 AND AS WE'VE ACCUMULATED DATA, 396 00:15:12,066 --> 00:15:14,700 WE'VE PUSHED OUT THE ORBITAL PERIOD 397 00:15:14,700 --> 00:15:17,300 FOR WHICH WE CAN FIND SUCH PLANETS AS SMALL AS EARTH, 398 00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:18,733 SO WE'RE REACHING OUT AT THIS POINT 399 00:15:18,733 --> 00:15:21,400 TO A COUPLE OF HUNDRED DAYS FOR THE ORBITAL PERIOD. 400 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:22,900 NOW, THAT'S NOT QUITE THE HOLY GRAIL, 401 00:15:22,900 --> 00:15:25,166 BUT WE'RE ON OUR WAY THERE, WE BELIEVE. 402 00:15:25,166 --> 00:15:27,600 ONE OF THE BIGGEST, EXCITING NEWS THIS YEAR, 403 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,000 WAS THE FACT THAT WE WERE ABLE TO USE 404 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:30,566 A STATISTICAL VALIDATION TECHNIQUE 405 00:15:30,566 --> 00:15:34,666 ON ALL OF THE MULTIPLE PLANET SYSTEMS WE'VE DISCOVERED. 406 00:15:34,666 --> 00:15:37,533 TWO ACTUALLY DOMINATE THE FIELD, 407 00:15:37,533 --> 00:15:40,133 SO NOW WE'VE DETECTED AND CONFIRMED OR VALIDATED 408 00:15:40,133 --> 00:15:41,800 MORE PLANETS THAN ANYBODY ELSE, 409 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,500 AND MOST OF OURS WERE VERY SMALL. 410 00:15:43,500 --> 00:15:45,666 MOREOVER, THEY'RE IN MULTIPLE PLANET SYSTEMS. 411 00:15:45,666 --> 00:15:46,833 THESE ARE VERY INTERESTING. 412 00:15:46,833 --> 00:15:48,800 YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT THE SYSTEM, 413 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,866 NOT JUST ABOUT A SINGLE PLANET AROUND A SINGLE STAR. 414 00:15:50,866 --> 00:15:52,966 WE WANT TO KNOW IF OUR OWN SOLAR SYSTEM IS NORMAL 415 00:15:52,966 --> 00:15:54,366 OR WHETHER IT'S WEIRD. 416 00:15:54,366 --> 00:15:56,333 IN FACT, IT'S A LOT LESS WEIRD THAN IT USED TO BE 417 00:15:56,333 --> 00:15:58,533 AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF EXOPLANETS, 418 00:15:58,533 --> 00:16:00,200 BUT IT'S NOT NORMAL, EITHER, 419 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,033 SO THERE'S A LOT MORE TO LEARN. 420 00:16:02,033 --> 00:16:04,700 SO THIS WAS A PHENOMENAL STEP FORWARD 421 00:16:04,700 --> 00:16:06,533 FOR THE FIELD AND FOR KEPLER. 422 00:16:06,533 --> 00:16:10,866 WE HAVE MADE PROGRESS IN FINDING SMALL, 423 00:16:10,866 --> 00:16:14,566 MOST LIKELY ROCKY-- POSSIBLY ROCKY PLANETS. 424 00:16:14,566 --> 00:16:16,233 THIS IS 62e AND f, 425 00:16:16,233 --> 00:16:21,733 ABOUT 1.5 OR SO, 1.6 EARTH RADII. 426 00:16:21,733 --> 00:16:23,233 THEY COULD BE ROCKY, 427 00:16:23,233 --> 00:16:24,566 AND THEY'RE BOTH EITHER-- 428 00:16:24,566 --> 00:16:27,733 62e IS ON THE INNER EDGE OF THE HABITABLE ZONE, 429 00:16:27,733 --> 00:16:29,433 AND 62f IS SMACK DAB IN THE MIDDLE 430 00:16:29,433 --> 00:16:30,933 OF ITS HABITABLE ZONE. 431 00:16:30,933 --> 00:16:32,166 NOW, THIS STAR IS A LITTLE BIT SMALLER 432 00:16:32,166 --> 00:16:33,600 AND COOLER THAN THE SUN, 433 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,300 SO THE HABITABLE ZONE, THAT GREEN LANE, 434 00:16:35,300 --> 00:16:40,000 IS CLOSER TO ITS STAR THAN OUR HABITABLE ZONE IS. 435 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:41,066 BUT AT THAT DISTANCE, 436 00:16:41,066 --> 00:16:43,133 IT RECEIVES ABOUT THE SAME RADIATION 437 00:16:43,133 --> 00:16:45,566 THAT WE DO FROM THE SUN. 438 00:16:45,566 --> 00:16:48,300 NOW, I PROMISED TO TALK ACOUSTIC OSCILLATIONS IN STARS, 439 00:16:48,300 --> 00:16:51,933 BECAUSE THIS IS THE UNSUNG STORY OF KEPLER. 440 00:16:51,933 --> 00:16:53,466 "WHY DO STARS SING?" 441 00:16:53,466 --> 00:16:55,733 WELL, PAY ATTENTION TO THIS GRAPH DOWN HERE. 442 00:16:55,733 --> 00:16:58,633 SO IF YOU HAVE A STARQUAKE, STARS ARE BIG BALLS OF FLUID, 443 00:16:58,633 --> 00:17:00,866 AND THEY RESONATE KIND OF LIKE BOWLS OF JELL-O, 444 00:17:00,866 --> 00:17:03,600 AND IF YOU HAVE STARQUAKE, YOU CAN EXCITE AN ACOUSTIC WAVE 445 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,966 THAT WILL TRAVEL DOWN TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE STAR, 446 00:17:05,966 --> 00:17:06,966 BUT IT WILL REFRACT BACK, 447 00:17:06,966 --> 00:17:08,800 BECAUSE OF THE SOUND SPEED CHANGE. 448 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:10,366 THEN IT WILL BOUNCE AROUND, 449 00:17:10,366 --> 00:17:12,266 AND IF IT COMES BACK TO THE SAME POINT IT STARTED AT, 450 00:17:12,266 --> 00:17:13,533 IT KEEPS ON GOING AROUND. 451 00:17:13,533 --> 00:17:16,300 SO YOU SET UP THESE QUASI-HARMONIC OSCILLATIONS, 452 00:17:16,300 --> 00:17:18,000 AND JUST AS WITH BELLS, 453 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:21,166 THE BIGGER THE STAR IS, THE DEEPER THE TONE, RIGHT? 454 00:17:21,166 --> 00:17:22,433 THE LOWER THE FREQUENCY 455 00:17:22,433 --> 00:17:24,866 OR THE LOWER THE PITCH THAT IT SINGS. 456 00:17:24,866 --> 00:17:27,333 SO ASTRONOMERS, ASTEROSEISMOLOGISTS 457 00:17:27,333 --> 00:17:28,600 CAN STUDY THE INTERVALS 458 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:30,800 OF THE SPACING OF THE DIFFERENT MODES 459 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:32,466 AND THE CENTER FREQUENCY 460 00:17:32,466 --> 00:17:35,433 AND LEARN ABOUT THE MASS, THE AGE, AND THE SIZE. 461 00:17:35,433 --> 00:17:38,300 IN FACT, FOR THESE STARS, YOU CAN MEASURE THE AGE-- 462 00:17:38,300 --> 00:17:41,100 EXCUSE ME, THE MASS AND THE SIZE TO A COUPLE PERCENT, 463 00:17:41,100 --> 00:17:43,400 WHICH IS PHENOMENAL, BECAUSE THEY'RE JUST POINT SOURCES. 464 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,366 WE CAN'T SEE THEM. 465 00:17:46,366 --> 00:17:48,900 THIS IS HOW WE'VE CHANGED THE FIELD IN ASTEROSEISMOLOGY 466 00:17:48,900 --> 00:17:50,666 JUST WITH THE FIRST COUPLE OF YEARS OF DATA. 467 00:17:50,666 --> 00:17:52,333 THIS WAS PUBLISHED IN 2011, 468 00:17:52,333 --> 00:17:53,666 BUT THERE ARE OVER 500 STARS 469 00:17:53,666 --> 00:17:55,966 FOR WHICH WE'VE OBSERVED THESE P MODE OSCILLATIONS, 470 00:17:55,966 --> 00:17:57,500 OR PRESSURE MODE OSCILLATIONS, 471 00:17:57,500 --> 00:18:00,700 ALL UP AND DOWN THE HR DIAGRAM. 472 00:18:00,700 --> 00:18:03,100 BEFORE KEPLER, THERE WERE MAYBE A COUPLE OF DOZEN STARS 473 00:18:03,100 --> 00:18:04,233 FOR WHICH WE COULD DO THIS 474 00:18:04,233 --> 00:18:07,533 VIA DOPPLER TECHNIQUES FROM THE GROUND. 475 00:18:07,533 --> 00:18:08,966 [oscillation warbling] 476 00:18:08,966 --> 00:18:10,933 AND THIS IS THE SOUND THAT THE STARS ARE MAKING. 477 00:18:10,933 --> 00:18:12,966 NOW, IT'S SPED UP SO THAT WE CAN ACTUALLY PERCEIVE IT, 478 00:18:12,966 --> 00:18:15,200 BECAUSE YOU DON'T WANT TO BE HERE FOR FOUR YEARS, DO YOU? 479 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:16,833 I DON'T. 480 00:18:16,833 --> 00:18:19,200 [oscillation stops] 481 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,466 NOW I WANT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE OF THE WEIRDEST DISCOVERIES, 482 00:18:21,466 --> 00:18:23,266 PERHAPS THE MOST BIZARRE DISCOVERY KEPLER HAS MADE, 483 00:18:23,266 --> 00:18:25,933 AND THAT IS THAT WE SAW THIS LIGHT CURVE EARLY ON 484 00:18:25,933 --> 00:18:27,233 WHERE YOU SEE THIS HAIR. 485 00:18:27,233 --> 00:18:28,566 THESE ARE TRANSIT-LIKE FEATURES 486 00:18:28,566 --> 00:18:30,600 OCCURRING EVERY 16 HOURS OR SO-- 487 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,333 PRECISELY EVERY 16-POINT-SOME HOURS-- 488 00:18:33,333 --> 00:18:36,200 BUT THEY CHANGE DEPTH, AND PLANETS DON'T DO THAT. 489 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,566 SO THIS WAS RELIABLY DETECTED BY OUR PIPELINE 490 00:18:38,566 --> 00:18:40,533 EACH AND EVERY TIME WE RAN IT, BUT IT WAS IGNORED, 491 00:18:40,533 --> 00:18:42,566 BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE INTERESTED IN PLANETS. 492 00:18:42,566 --> 00:18:44,633 THIS LOOKED LIKE SOME KIND OF STRANGE ARTIFACT. 493 00:18:44,633 --> 00:18:47,000 BUT SAUL RAPPAPORT SAW THIS AND SAID, 494 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:48,600 "THIS MUST BE SOMETHING INTERESTING. 495 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:49,966 WHAT COULD POSSIBLY BE GOING ON HERE?" 496 00:18:49,966 --> 00:18:51,400 AND IT TURNS OUT THAT THIS PLANET 497 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,933 IS SO CLOSE TO ITS STAR IN THIS 16-HOUR ORBIT 498 00:18:53,933 --> 00:18:55,666 THAT IT'S EVAPORATING, 499 00:18:55,666 --> 00:18:59,266 AND SO IT'S ABOUT 2,300 KELVIN ON THE SURFACE, 500 00:18:59,266 --> 00:19:01,000 AND IT'S EVAPORATING MATERIAL OFF THE SURFACE. 501 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:02,433 IT'S BLOWING OFF. 502 00:19:02,433 --> 00:19:04,633 IT'S THEN COOLING AND CONDENSING INTO A COMET-LIKE TAIL, 503 00:19:04,633 --> 00:19:06,633 SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THE COMET TAIL 504 00:19:06,633 --> 00:19:08,700 OCCLUDING OR BLOCKING THE LIGHT FROM THE STAR, 505 00:19:08,700 --> 00:19:10,300 AND BECAUSE THE ACTIVITY CHANGES 506 00:19:10,300 --> 00:19:12,100 AS A FUNCTION OF THE RADIATION OF THE STAR, 507 00:19:12,100 --> 00:19:13,466 AND THE STAR HAS SPOTS, 508 00:19:13,466 --> 00:19:16,266 SO YOU GET THESE OUTBURSTS, AND IT CHANGES OVER TIME, 509 00:19:16,266 --> 00:19:18,900 THEN YOU GET A CHANGING DEPTH OF THE TRANSIT-LIKE FEATURE 510 00:19:18,900 --> 00:19:21,500 BECAUSE THE TAIL IS CHANGING. 511 00:19:21,500 --> 00:19:23,266 NOW, WE ONLY HAVE ONE OTHER CANDIDATE 512 00:19:23,266 --> 00:19:25,200 IN ALL OF OUR 200,000 LIGHT CURVES 513 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:26,733 THAT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE ONE OF THESE. 514 00:19:26,733 --> 00:19:28,333 BUT THESE ARE VERY SHORT-LIVED OBJECTS. 515 00:19:28,333 --> 00:19:31,333 THIS, WE BELIEVE, WILL EVAPORATE WITHIN 200 MILLION YEARS, 516 00:19:31,333 --> 00:19:33,000 WHICH IS KIND OF THE BLINK OF AN EYE 517 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,600 IN TERMS OF THE AGE OF THE UNIVERSE. 518 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:39,333 WELL, I WANT TO TELL YOU WHERE PLANETS COME FROM. 519 00:19:42,166 --> 00:19:43,800 THEY START OUT WITH RAW DATA. 520 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:45,300 SO WE HAVE THE POSTAGE STAMPS 521 00:19:45,300 --> 00:19:47,366 COMING DOWN FROM THE SPACECRAFT, 522 00:19:47,366 --> 00:19:48,833 AND THIS ESSENTIALLY IS MY BABY, 523 00:19:48,833 --> 00:19:50,533 AND THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE HERE WHO'VE HELPED ME 524 00:19:50,533 --> 00:19:52,066 OVER MANY YEARS TO BUILD THIS THING. 525 00:19:52,066 --> 00:19:54,066 WE HAVE TO DO THE STANDARD KINDS OF CORRECTIONS 526 00:19:54,066 --> 00:19:57,366 THAT PHOTOMETRISTS DO WHEN THEY COLLECT DATA 527 00:19:57,366 --> 00:19:58,500 FROM CCDs ON THE GROUND. 528 00:19:58,500 --> 00:19:59,966 WE HAVE TO CALIBRATE THE PIXELS, 529 00:19:59,966 --> 00:20:01,800 REMOVE ON-CHIP ARTIFACTS. 530 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:03,800 WE HAVE TO THEN SUM UP ALL THE PIXELS 531 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:05,633 UNDERNEATH THE IMAGE OF EACH STAR 532 00:20:05,633 --> 00:20:07,200 TO COUNT THE COUNTS, 533 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,900 AND THAT GIVES US THE BRIGHTNESS AS A FUNCTION OF TIME. 534 00:20:08,900 --> 00:20:10,533 YOU CAN SEE AN EXAMPLE HERE. 535 00:20:10,533 --> 00:20:12,000 YOU ALSO SEE SOME OTHER THINGS GOING ON 536 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:13,266 THAT ARE SYSTEMATIC 537 00:20:13,266 --> 00:20:16,700 DUE TO HOW THE INSTRUMENT IS DRIFTING OVER TIME. 538 00:20:16,700 --> 00:20:19,366 SO WE HAVE TO IDENTIFY THOSE IN THIS MODULE AND REMOVE THEM 539 00:20:19,366 --> 00:20:20,833 SO THAT THE DATA ARE CLEAN ENOUGH 540 00:20:20,833 --> 00:20:22,833 TO PRESENT TO OUR DETECTION ALGORITHM, 541 00:20:22,833 --> 00:20:24,100 WHICH THEN COMBS THROUGH THE DATA 542 00:20:24,100 --> 00:20:26,066 LOOKING FOR TRANSIT-LIKE FEATURES, 543 00:20:26,066 --> 00:20:27,233 AND IT DOES A REALLY GOOD JOB 544 00:20:27,233 --> 00:20:28,633 AT FINDING TRANSIT-LIKE FEATURES, 545 00:20:28,633 --> 00:20:30,400 AND IT TURNS OUT-- I'LL TELL YOU LATER-- 546 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,566 THAT A LOT OF OTHER THINGS 547 00:20:31,566 --> 00:20:33,066 CAN LOOK LIKE TRANSIT-LIKE FEATURES, TOO, 548 00:20:33,066 --> 00:20:34,500 SO IT'S VERY CHALLENGING. 549 00:20:34,500 --> 00:20:36,200 BUT THEN WE HAND IT OVER TO DATA VALIDATION, 550 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,333 WHICH THEN CREATES A SUITE OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS 551 00:20:39,333 --> 00:20:40,633 THAT HELP THE SCIENTISTS 552 00:20:40,633 --> 00:20:42,200 AND ASTRONOMERS AND ASTROPHYSICISTS 553 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,066 DECIDE WHETHER THIS IS A PLANET OR NOT. 554 00:20:44,066 --> 00:20:46,900 IT CAN HELP MAKE OR BREAK THAT HYPOTHESIS. 555 00:20:46,900 --> 00:20:48,933 AND THEN WE LEAVE IT 556 00:20:48,933 --> 00:20:50,700 TO THE THRESHOLD CROSSING EVENT REVIEW TEAM, 557 00:20:50,700 --> 00:20:52,100 A GROUP OF PEOPLE-- 558 00:20:52,100 --> 00:20:54,500 SCIENTISTS IN THE SCIENCE OFFICE AND ON THE SCIENCE TEAM-- 559 00:20:54,500 --> 00:20:56,533 TO ACTUALLY DECIDE WHAT'S WHAT, 560 00:20:56,533 --> 00:20:58,733 PLANET OR DUD? 561 00:20:58,733 --> 00:21:01,033 THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF ONE OF THE END PRODUCTS 562 00:21:01,033 --> 00:21:02,700 FROM THE KEPLER PIPELINE. 563 00:21:02,700 --> 00:21:04,466 THIS IS A DATA VALIDATION SUMMARY REPORT 564 00:21:04,466 --> 00:21:06,833 WHERE WE SUMMARIZE THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION 565 00:21:06,833 --> 00:21:08,200 ON ONE PAGE. 566 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,100 THIS IS A REALLY GOOD-LOOKING SIGNATURE 567 00:21:10,100 --> 00:21:11,633 OF A PLANET TRANSITING HERE. 568 00:21:11,633 --> 00:21:13,533 IT'S FOLDED AT THE PERIOD OF THE PLANET. 569 00:21:13,533 --> 00:21:15,533 YOU CAN SEE THE INDIVIDUAL TRANSITS MARKED. 570 00:21:15,533 --> 00:21:17,233 YOU CAN SEE THE FULL LIGHT CURVE. 571 00:21:17,233 --> 00:21:19,433 YOU CAN SEE THE ODD AND EVEN, 572 00:21:19,433 --> 00:21:21,333 AND EVERYTHING'S BLACK HERE. 573 00:21:21,333 --> 00:21:22,466 IF ANYTHING WERE RED, 574 00:21:22,466 --> 00:21:24,633 IT WOULD BE CALLED POSSIBLY INTO QUESTION, 575 00:21:24,633 --> 00:21:25,766 BUT EVERYTHING IS BLACK. 576 00:21:25,766 --> 00:21:28,733 THIS WAS CREATED ON 30th OF OCTOBER, 2012. 577 00:21:28,733 --> 00:21:30,833 THIS WAS THE SUBJECT OF A VERY IMPORTANT DISCOVERY 578 00:21:30,833 --> 00:21:33,000 ANNOUNCED EARLIER THIS YEAR, KEPLER-186f. 579 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,433 THIS IS THE DISCOVERY SHOT. 580 00:21:34,433 --> 00:21:37,733 THIS WAS WHAT GAVE ASTRONOMERS THE INFORMATION THEY NEEDED 581 00:21:37,733 --> 00:21:39,533 TO SAY THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING OBJECT 582 00:21:39,533 --> 00:21:40,966 AND MOST LIKELY A PLANET, 583 00:21:40,966 --> 00:21:43,366 BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES 584 00:21:43,366 --> 00:21:46,333 THAT GET TURNED UP LATER BY THE FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS. 585 00:21:46,333 --> 00:21:47,766 BUT THIS IS WHAT EVERYBODY WANTS TO SEE 586 00:21:47,766 --> 00:21:49,700 WHEN THEY'RE LOOKING AT THESE REPORTS. 587 00:21:49,700 --> 00:21:51,966 NOW, UNFORTUNATELY, WE'VE HAD A PLAGUE 588 00:21:51,966 --> 00:21:53,233 OF PLANET-LIKE SIGNATURES, 589 00:21:53,233 --> 00:21:54,800 AND AS WE'VE ACCUMULATED MORE DATA, 590 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,733 IT'S KIND OF LIKE BALES OF HAY FALLING ON YOUR HEAD, 591 00:21:56,733 --> 00:21:58,433 AND YOU'RE LOOKING FOR GOLDEN NEEDLES. 592 00:21:58,433 --> 00:22:01,833 SO THE SYSTEM WAS SPEEDING UP AS WE WERE ACCUMULATING DATA, 593 00:22:01,833 --> 00:22:03,766 AND IT WAS RUNNING FASTER AND FASTER, 594 00:22:03,766 --> 00:22:05,366 AND SO IT WAS DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH. 595 00:22:05,366 --> 00:22:06,733 IN FACT, IT WAS SO DIFFICULT, 596 00:22:06,733 --> 00:22:08,933 WE HAD TO CHANGE OUR ARCHITECTURE FOR OUR HARDWARE. 597 00:22:08,933 --> 00:22:11,033 SO THIS WAS... THESE WERE OUR LOCAL CLUSTERS 598 00:22:11,033 --> 00:22:14,166 OR LOCAL COMPUTERS WE USED FOR THE FIRST THREE OR SO YEARS, 599 00:22:14,166 --> 00:22:15,400 AND THEN IT BECAME APPARENT 600 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,000 THAT WE COULDN'T KEEP UP WITH THE DATA. 601 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,266 WELL, WE COULD KEEP UP WITH THE DATA, 602 00:22:18,266 --> 00:22:19,700 BUT WE COULDN'T GO BACK AND REPROCESS IT 603 00:22:19,700 --> 00:22:21,500 TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ALL THOSE IMPROVEMENTS 604 00:22:21,500 --> 00:22:23,133 THAT WE'D MADE TO THE SOFTWARE, 605 00:22:23,133 --> 00:22:24,733 HAVING LEARNED SO MUCH ABOUT THE INSTRUMENT 606 00:22:24,733 --> 00:22:26,400 AND ABOUT THE SKY IN THE MEANTIME. 607 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,833 SO WE MOVED OUR OPERATIONS TO THE SUPERCOMPUTER. 608 00:22:30,833 --> 00:22:33,133 KEPLER IS A STORY OF MANY THREADS 609 00:22:33,133 --> 00:22:35,933 HAVING TO COME TOGETHER TO ENABLE IT TO FLY 610 00:22:35,933 --> 00:22:37,533 WHEN IT FLEW AND TO BE SUCCESSFUL. 611 00:22:37,533 --> 00:22:38,633 WE NEEDED TECHNOLOGY. 612 00:22:38,633 --> 00:22:41,000 WE NEEDED BACK-ILLUMINATED CCDs. 613 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,900 WE NEEDED COMPUTERS ON BOARD FAST ENOUGH 614 00:22:42,900 --> 00:22:44,333 TO COLLECT THE DATA AND DEAL WITH IT. 615 00:22:44,333 --> 00:22:46,433 WE NEEDED THE POLITICAL WILL 616 00:22:46,433 --> 00:22:48,400 OF THE ASTRONOMERS AND THE COMMUNITY 617 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,000 TO GET BEHIND THIS PROJECT AND BELIEVE THAT IT COULD WORK, 618 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,633 BECAUSE IT WAS NOT CHEAP. 619 00:22:52,633 --> 00:22:55,833 AND WE NEEDED OUTSTANDING COMPUTATIONAL RESOURCES 620 00:22:55,833 --> 00:22:59,500 AVAILABLE HERE AT NASA AMES TO DO THIS JOB. 621 00:22:59,500 --> 00:23:01,733 IF YOU TOOK ALL OF THE DATA VALIDATION REPORTS 622 00:23:01,733 --> 00:23:04,800 FROM A TYPICAL RUN ACROSS FOUR YEARS OF KEPLER DATA, 623 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:09,500 YOU WOULD CREATE A STACK OF PAPER 150 STORIES HIGH. 624 00:23:09,500 --> 00:23:11,400 THIS IS THE CHICAGO SPIRE. 625 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,633 I THINK THAT'S ONLY PROPOSED. IT HASN'T BEEN BUILT, 626 00:23:13,633 --> 00:23:15,266 BUT THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT TALLER 627 00:23:15,266 --> 00:23:17,233 THAN THIS STACK OF PAPER. 628 00:23:17,233 --> 00:23:19,466 BUT I DON'T KNOW ANYBODY THAT WOULD WANT TO CRAWL THROUGH 629 00:23:19,466 --> 00:23:21,533 150 STORIES OF PAPER 630 00:23:21,533 --> 00:23:23,766 IN ORDER TO DECIDE WHETHER SOMETHING'S A PLANET OR NOT. 631 00:23:23,766 --> 00:23:25,366 IT'S REALLY AN OVERWHELMING JOB. 632 00:23:25,366 --> 00:23:29,033 WE'LL COME BACK TO THIS POINT A LITTLE BIT LATER. 633 00:23:29,033 --> 00:23:32,100 SO IN THE END, HAVING ANALYZED ALL THE DATA FROM THE PIPELINE 634 00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:34,133 AND GONE OUT AND GOTTEN ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, 635 00:23:34,133 --> 00:23:35,400 ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS, 636 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,300 AND DONE ADDITIONAL VALIDATION ANALYSES, 637 00:23:37,300 --> 00:23:38,866 WE HAVE KEPLER-186f, 638 00:23:38,866 --> 00:23:41,833 WHICH IS OUR FIRST EXAMPLE OF AN EARTH-SIZE PLANET 639 00:23:41,833 --> 00:23:43,866 IN THE HABITABLE ZONE OF A MAIN SEQUENCE STAR 640 00:23:43,866 --> 00:23:45,433 BURNING HYDROGEN IN ITS CORE. 641 00:23:45,433 --> 00:23:46,866 THE KEPLER-186 SYSTEM. 642 00:23:46,866 --> 00:23:49,266 SO IT'S ORBITING AN "M" STAR ABOUT HALF THE MASS 643 00:23:49,266 --> 00:23:51,400 AND HALF THE SIZE OF OUR OWN SUN, 644 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,600 SO THE HABITABLE ZONE IS MUCH CLOSER, 645 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,633 BUT IT'S A LITTLE BIT BIGGER THAN EARTH, 646 00:23:56,633 --> 00:23:58,000 BUT NOT TOO MUCH. 647 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,800 IT RECEIVES A LITTLE BIT LESS RADIATION THAN WE DO, 648 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,400 BUT IN PRINCIPLE, THAT'S NOT A PROBLEM. 649 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,466 NOW, PEOPLE HAVE OTHER ISSUES WITH "M" STARS, 650 00:24:04,466 --> 00:24:05,733 BECAUSE THEY FLARE. 651 00:24:05,733 --> 00:24:07,333 THE HABITABLE ZONE IS SO TIGHT 652 00:24:07,333 --> 00:24:09,366 THAT MOST OF THE PLANETS WOULD BE LOCKED, 653 00:24:09,366 --> 00:24:12,333 LIKE THE MOON IS LOCKED IN ITS ORBIT ABOUT THE EARTH. 654 00:24:12,333 --> 00:24:14,166 I PERSONALLY DON'T THINK THAT'S A PROBLEM. 655 00:24:14,166 --> 00:24:15,633 HAVING STUDIED VENUS, 656 00:24:15,633 --> 00:24:16,900 IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT THE TEMPERATURE 657 00:24:16,900 --> 00:24:19,266 OF A PARTICULAR PLACE IS IN THE VENUS ATMOSPHERE, 658 00:24:19,266 --> 00:24:21,833 IT'S A FUNCTION NOT OF THE ANGLE TO THE SUN. 659 00:24:21,833 --> 00:24:24,633 IT'S A FUNCTION OF YOUR ALTITUDE AND YOUR LATITUDE ONLY. 660 00:24:24,633 --> 00:24:28,200 THAT'S BECAUSE THE WIND ON VENUS IN THE THICK ATMOSPHERE 661 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,633 CIRCULATES THE HEAT SO EFFECTIVELY 662 00:24:30,633 --> 00:24:33,200 FROM THE SUN SIDE TO THE ANTI-SUN SIDE, 663 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,966 THAT IT DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER IT'S LIGHT OR DARK. 664 00:24:35,966 --> 00:24:37,866 SO YOU JUST NEED A THICK ATMOSPHERE. 665 00:24:37,866 --> 00:24:39,466 HOPEFULLY NOT TOO THICK. 666 00:24:39,466 --> 00:24:41,433 NOW, WE HAVE COLLECTED A NUMBER 667 00:24:41,433 --> 00:24:42,900 OF SMALL HABITABLE ZONE CANDIDATES, 668 00:24:42,900 --> 00:24:44,100 AND THIS IS THE LATEST AND GREATEST 669 00:24:44,100 --> 00:24:46,700 THAT I GOT FROM NATALIE. THANK YOU. 670 00:24:46,700 --> 00:24:48,133 AND WE HAVE A LOT MORE CANDIDATES, 671 00:24:48,133 --> 00:24:50,366 AND SOME OF THESE HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED OR VALIDATED. 672 00:24:50,366 --> 00:24:52,433 AND THESE GREEN LANES INDICATE 673 00:24:52,433 --> 00:24:53,966 WHERE WE BELIEVE THE HABITABLE ZONE IS. 674 00:24:53,966 --> 00:24:55,266 NOW, THERE ARE TWO MARKED HERE, 675 00:24:55,266 --> 00:24:57,800 BECAUSE WE'RE NOT QUITE CERTAIN AS SCIENTISTS 676 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,500 WHAT WE SHOULD DEFINE TO BE THE HABITABLE ZONE. 677 00:25:00,500 --> 00:25:02,900 THERE'S SOME CONTROVERSY, AND I'LL SAY 678 00:25:02,900 --> 00:25:05,333 THERE'S AN ACTIVE DISCUSSION AND DIALOGUE GOING ON. 679 00:25:05,333 --> 00:25:07,300 BUT THIS ON THE "X" AXIS 680 00:25:07,300 --> 00:25:08,966 IS THE FLUX RECEIVED BY THE PLANET 681 00:25:08,966 --> 00:25:11,166 RELATIVE TO WHAT WE RECEIVE HERE ON EARTH, 682 00:25:11,166 --> 00:25:13,066 SO ONE IS WHERE THE EARTH IS WAY UP HERE. 683 00:25:13,066 --> 00:25:15,333 THIS IS THE TEMPERATURE OF THE STAR, 684 00:25:15,333 --> 00:25:16,866 SO THIS ALLOWS US TO CONVENIENTLY PLOT 685 00:25:16,866 --> 00:25:18,066 ALL THESE POINTS ON ONE GRAPH 686 00:25:18,066 --> 00:25:20,200 AND SEE WHERE THEY LIE. 687 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:21,600 THIS IS VERY EXCITING. 688 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,000 THIS WHAT WE HOPED TO SEE WHEN WE LAUNCHED KEPLER. 689 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,300 ARE WE THERE YET? 690 00:25:27,300 --> 00:25:29,100 WELL, THE ANSWER IS NO. 691 00:25:29,100 --> 00:25:32,033 WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE DISCOVERIES WE'VE MADE MEAN. 692 00:25:32,033 --> 00:25:34,633 IT'S NO TIME TO FALL ASLEEP. 693 00:25:34,633 --> 00:25:35,933 WE NEED TO KEEP PRESSING ON, 694 00:25:35,933 --> 00:25:38,000 AND, FORTUNATELY, HEADQUARTERS HAS ALLOWED US 695 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,433 TO GO ON FOR AN EXTENDED MISSION, 696 00:25:39,433 --> 00:25:40,800 A CLOSE-OUT MISSION NOW, 697 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,700 TO FINISH THE JOB THAT WE STARTED, 698 00:25:42,700 --> 00:25:45,666 NAMELY TO FIND AND DETERMINE THE FREQUENCY 699 00:25:45,666 --> 00:25:47,866 OF EARTH-SIZE PLANETS IN THE HABITABLE ZONE 700 00:25:47,866 --> 00:25:50,333 OF SUN-LIKE STARS IN OUR TARGET SAMPLE, 701 00:25:50,333 --> 00:25:53,300 WHICH THEN INFORMS US ABOUT THE GALAXY. 702 00:25:53,300 --> 00:25:56,100 IN FACT, NATALIE IS THE CHIEF SCIENTIST, 703 00:25:56,100 --> 00:25:57,233 OUR MISSION SCIENTIST, 704 00:25:57,233 --> 00:25:58,566 WHO'S BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS, 705 00:25:58,566 --> 00:26:00,066 AND SHE'S BEEN PUTTING TOGETHER THE RECIPE 706 00:26:00,066 --> 00:26:02,433 FOR HOW WE'RE GONNA BAKE THIS CAKE. 707 00:26:02,433 --> 00:26:04,900 SO WE NEED TO HAVE THE BEST PLANET CANDIDATES 708 00:26:04,900 --> 00:26:07,533 AND SET OF CONFIRMED AND VALIDATED PLANETS THAT WE CAN, 709 00:26:07,533 --> 00:26:08,866 AND THAT'S WHERE THE SOC COMES IN. 710 00:26:08,866 --> 00:26:11,133 THAT'S OUR JOB IS TO FIND 711 00:26:11,133 --> 00:26:12,666 THE PLANET SIGNATURES IN THE DATA. 712 00:26:12,666 --> 00:26:15,200 WE ALSO NEED TO CHARACTERIZE THE COMPLETENESS 713 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:16,733 OF THE KEPLER PLANET DISCOVERY SYSTEM. 714 00:26:16,733 --> 00:26:18,333 IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT YOU HAVE A BUNCH 715 00:26:18,333 --> 00:26:19,500 OF PRETTY, SHINY MARBLES. 716 00:26:19,500 --> 00:26:21,433 YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW MANY YOU MISSED. 717 00:26:21,433 --> 00:26:22,866 YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW MANY ARE IN THE BAG 718 00:26:22,866 --> 00:26:24,066 THAT YOU STILL HAVE 719 00:26:24,066 --> 00:26:25,766 BUT YOU CAN'T LOOK IN DIRECTLY, RIGHT? 720 00:26:25,766 --> 00:26:27,700 YOU ALSO WANT TO KNOW HOW MANY OF THOSE MARBLES 721 00:26:27,700 --> 00:26:29,100 ARE FALSE-POSITIVES, 722 00:26:29,100 --> 00:26:31,966 SO YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THE RELIABILITY OF YOUR SAMPLE 723 00:26:31,966 --> 00:26:34,933 IN ORDER TO DRAW THE CONCLUSIONS YOU WANT TO DRAW. 724 00:26:34,933 --> 00:26:36,666 YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE STARS. 725 00:26:36,666 --> 00:26:38,433 IN FACT, WE COULD NOT AFFORD TO KNOW AS MUCH 726 00:26:38,433 --> 00:26:40,666 ABOUT THE STARS WHEN WE LAUNCHED 727 00:26:40,666 --> 00:26:42,800 AS WE REALLY NEEDED TO IN ORDER TO DO THIS JOB. 728 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,566 SO WE'RE PLAYING CATCH UP AFTER THE FACT, 729 00:26:44,566 --> 00:26:47,733 BECAUSE WE COULD SIMPLY NOT AFFORD TO DO THIS 730 00:26:47,733 --> 00:26:50,066 FOR, WHAT WAS IT, NATALIE, 731 00:26:50,066 --> 00:26:53,833 5 MILLION STARS IN OUR CATALOG, SOMETHING LIKE THAT? 732 00:26:53,833 --> 00:26:55,633 THANK YOU, BILL. 15 MILLION STARS. 733 00:26:55,633 --> 00:26:57,000 THAT WOULD HAVE TAKEN A LONG TIME, 734 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,466 AT LEAST WITH ASSETS THEN, 735 00:26:58,466 --> 00:27:00,066 AND PROBABLY STILL TODAY. 736 00:27:00,066 --> 00:27:01,433 WE ALSO NEED TO KNOW 737 00:27:01,433 --> 00:27:03,866 ABOUT THE BACKGROUND ECLIPSING BINARY DISTRIBUTION, 738 00:27:03,866 --> 00:27:05,966 BECAUSE THAT... ECLIPSING BINARIES, 739 00:27:05,966 --> 00:27:07,766 AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES BEFORE FOR EXOPLANETS, 740 00:27:07,766 --> 00:27:09,533 ARE THE SCOURGE OF THE UNIVERSE. 741 00:27:09,533 --> 00:27:11,533 THEY MIMIC PLANETARY TRANSITS, 742 00:27:11,533 --> 00:27:13,466 AND THEY'RE GREAT WHEN YOU HAVE CIRCUMBINARY SYSTEMS, 743 00:27:13,466 --> 00:27:15,766 BUT OTHERWISE, WHO CARES? 744 00:27:15,766 --> 00:27:17,933 ACTUALLY, WE HAVE PEOPLE ON THE SCIENCE TEAM THAT CARE A LOT, 745 00:27:17,933 --> 00:27:20,133 AND IT'S REALLY COOL SCIENCE THEY'RE DOING. 746 00:27:20,133 --> 00:27:22,033 FURTHERMORE, WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND 747 00:27:22,033 --> 00:27:23,333 WHAT KINDS OF PLANET-- 748 00:27:23,333 --> 00:27:25,133 WHAT KINDS OF STARS WE CHOSE TO BE OUR TARGETS. 749 00:27:25,133 --> 00:27:28,000 WE WERE VERY SELECTIVE, SO THERE ARE SELECTION BIASES 750 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,800 IN THE POOL OF PLANETARY TARGETS, OF STARS, 751 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,100 THAT WE CHOSE TO OBSERVE. 752 00:27:33,100 --> 00:27:35,600 WE NEED TO KNOW HOW THE PROPERTIES OF THE STARS 753 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,100 WE CHOSE TO OBSERVE RELATE TO THE PROPERTIES 754 00:27:37,100 --> 00:27:39,866 OF THE GENERAL STAR THAT WE FIND IN THE SOLAR NEIGHBORHOOD. 755 00:27:39,866 --> 00:27:41,266 NOW WE CAN TIE IT ALL TOGETHER 756 00:27:41,266 --> 00:27:42,700 AND UNDERSTAND WHAT'S GOING ON. 757 00:27:42,700 --> 00:27:44,733 WELL, WE'VE MADE SOME INITIAL ATTEMPTS. 758 00:27:44,733 --> 00:27:47,100 IN FACT, THE COMMUNITY HAS MADE INITIAL ATTEMPTS 759 00:27:47,100 --> 00:27:49,466 TO IDENTIFY WHAT THE OCCURRENCE RATES ARE 760 00:27:49,466 --> 00:27:50,600 FOR SMALL PLANETS, 761 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,433 AND YOU SEE TWO PUBLISHED RESULTS HERE. 762 00:27:52,433 --> 00:27:54,566 THIS IS A RECENT PRELIMINARY RESULT 763 00:27:54,566 --> 00:27:56,766 WITHIN THE KEPLER TEAM ITSELF, 764 00:27:56,766 --> 00:27:58,966 BY CHRIS BURKE, WHO WORKS IN THE SCIENCE OFFICE, 765 00:27:58,966 --> 00:28:00,800 AND HE ESTIMATES, BASED ON OUR UNDERSTANDING 766 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,900 OF OUR PIPELINE COMPLETENESS AND RELIABILITY, 767 00:28:02,900 --> 00:28:04,800 THAT ABOUT A THIRD OF THE STARS 768 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,233 THAT ARE MAIN SEQUENCE STARS IN OUR SAMPLE 769 00:28:07,233 --> 00:28:09,333 HAVE PLANETS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO EARTH RADII 770 00:28:09,333 --> 00:28:11,800 WITH ORBITAL PERIODS BETWEEN 50 AND 200 DAYS. 771 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,333 THAT'S A VERY EXCITING PIECE OF REAL ESTATE. 772 00:28:15,333 --> 00:28:16,633 WE WANT TO IMPROVE THAT. 773 00:28:16,633 --> 00:28:19,166 HOWEVER, IT DEPENDS ON WHAT ASSUMPTIONS YOU MAKE 774 00:28:19,166 --> 00:28:22,666 ABOUT YOUR SYSTEM, AND SO CHRIS HAS DONE DUE DILIGENCE 775 00:28:22,666 --> 00:28:25,333 AND FOUND THAT, DEPENDING ON WHAT ASSUMPTIONS HE MAKES 776 00:28:25,333 --> 00:28:28,900 ABOUT OUR STARS AND ABOUT WHAT WE'RE DOING, 777 00:28:28,900 --> 00:28:32,333 HE CAN GET ANSWER ANYWHERE BETWEEN ABOUT 0.2 AND 0.6, 778 00:28:32,333 --> 00:28:34,800 AND WITH TAILS THAT GO UP TO 0.9 OR SO, 779 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,233 AND, OF COURSE, TAILS THAT GO DOWN TO ABOUT 0.1. 780 00:28:37,233 --> 00:28:39,700 I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU, BUT AT THIS POINT, 781 00:28:39,700 --> 00:28:41,133 I DON'T THINK THAT WE HAVE A RESULT 782 00:28:41,133 --> 00:28:43,333 THAT WE CAN BE PROUD OF THAT CAN ACTUALLY CARRY US FORWARD 783 00:28:43,333 --> 00:28:44,800 TO UNDERSTAND WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW 784 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,366 IN ORDER TO SUPPORT FOLLOW-ON MISSIONS. 785 00:28:48,366 --> 00:28:49,666 SO HOW DO WE CHARACTERIZE 786 00:28:49,666 --> 00:28:52,033 THE KEPLER PLANET DISCOVERY SYSTEM? 787 00:28:52,033 --> 00:28:53,700 WELL, IT'S A REAL SAUSAGE MAKER. 788 00:28:53,700 --> 00:28:56,600 FIRST WE TAKE THE TARGET STAR PIXELS, 789 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,900 THESE POSTAGE STAMPS, WE GRIND THEM THROUGH THE PIPELINE 790 00:28:58,900 --> 00:29:00,966 TO MAKE LIGHT CURVES, 791 00:29:00,966 --> 00:29:04,066 IDENTIFY TRANSITING THRESHOLD CROSSING EVENTS. 792 00:29:04,066 --> 00:29:05,666 THESE ARE TRANSIT-LIKE FEATURES, 793 00:29:05,666 --> 00:29:07,900 AND THOSE IN THE DV DIAGNOSTICS 794 00:29:07,900 --> 00:29:09,833 GO TO THE THRESHOLD CROSSING EVENT REVIEW TEAM, 795 00:29:09,833 --> 00:29:10,900 A GROUP OF PEOPLE-- 796 00:29:10,900 --> 00:29:12,133 SO WE HAVE A PEOPLE PIPELINE-- 797 00:29:12,133 --> 00:29:16,233 THAT THEN PUMP OUT THE PLANETS. 798 00:29:16,233 --> 00:29:18,100 BUT WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND AND CHARACTERIZE 799 00:29:18,100 --> 00:29:19,533 THE COMPLETENESS AND RELIABILITY, 800 00:29:19,533 --> 00:29:20,700 SO WE'VE CLOSED THE LOOP 801 00:29:20,700 --> 00:29:23,266 BY ADDING THE CAPABILITY WITHIN THE SOC 802 00:29:23,266 --> 00:29:25,466 AND THE SCIENCE OFFICE TO INJECT ARTIFICIAL TRANSITS 803 00:29:25,466 --> 00:29:27,766 AND BACKGROUND ECLIPSING BINARIES INTO THE DATA. 804 00:29:27,766 --> 00:29:30,500 THAT PROVIDES THE GROUND TRUTH SO THAT WE CAN PUT THOSE IN 805 00:29:30,500 --> 00:29:31,933 AND SEE HOW THEY ALL FALL OUT. 806 00:29:31,933 --> 00:29:34,733 DO WE DETECT THE THINGS WE KNOW WE SHOULD BE DETECTING? 807 00:29:34,733 --> 00:29:36,400 DO WE MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION? 808 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,700 IS THIS AN ECLIPSING BINARY, OR IS THIS A PLANET? 809 00:29:38,700 --> 00:29:40,166 SO WE CAN TEST OUR SYSTEM. 810 00:29:40,166 --> 00:29:42,233 WE CAN TEST THE PEOPLE, TOO. 811 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,533 NOW, IN THE END, I THINK IT'S TOO HARD 812 00:29:47,533 --> 00:29:48,966 FOR PEOPLE TO DO ALL THAT, 813 00:29:48,966 --> 00:29:51,533 AT LEAST IN A COMPLETE, RELIABLE, AND CONSISTENT MANNER, 814 00:29:51,533 --> 00:29:54,100 SO I'VE BEEN WORKING WITH SOME COLLEAGUES 815 00:29:54,100 --> 00:29:56,200 IN THE SOC AND SCIENCE OFFICE. 816 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,200 SEAN McCAULIFF IS HERE? 817 00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:59,966 YES, THERE HE IS, OKAY. 818 00:29:59,966 --> 00:30:01,966 AND JOE CATANZARITE AND CHRIS BURKE 819 00:30:01,966 --> 00:30:06,100 AND JEFF COUGHLIN TO BUILD AN AUTO-VETTING MACHINE 820 00:30:06,100 --> 00:30:08,200 BASED ON USING MACHINE LEARNING APPROACHES 821 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:12,233 TO TRY TO DECIDE WHETHER SOMETHING SHOULD BE... 822 00:30:12,233 --> 00:30:14,066 SHOULD WARRANT ADDITIONAL ATTENTION OR NOT. 823 00:30:14,066 --> 00:30:17,766 AND WE'VE BEEN USING A RANDOM FOREST APPROACH. 824 00:30:17,766 --> 00:30:19,500 THIS IS BECAUSE WE GET 825 00:30:19,500 --> 00:30:21,900 ABOUT 20,000 THRESHOLD CROSSING EVENTS 826 00:30:21,900 --> 00:30:23,100 OUT OF A TYPICAL RUN. 827 00:30:23,100 --> 00:30:24,500 ALMOST ALL OF THOSE ARE DUDS. 828 00:30:24,500 --> 00:30:27,500 WHY ASK A HUMAN BEING TO SORT THROUGH ALL THAT JUNK? 829 00:30:27,500 --> 00:30:29,766 WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS TRAIN A MACHINE, 830 00:30:29,766 --> 00:30:32,333 BASED ON WHAT THE HUMANS HAVE DONE IN THE PAST, 831 00:30:32,333 --> 00:30:34,533 TO DO THIS JOB AT LEAST AS WELL AS HUMANS, 832 00:30:34,533 --> 00:30:35,700 AND PERHAPS EVEN BETTER, 833 00:30:35,700 --> 00:30:39,066 BECAUSE HUMANS ARE FICKLE PEOPLE. 834 00:30:39,066 --> 00:30:40,866 YOUR DECISION DEPENDS 835 00:30:40,866 --> 00:30:42,100 ON WHETHER YOU JUST HAD A CUP OF COFFEE. 836 00:30:42,100 --> 00:30:44,000 DID YOU HAVE A FIGHT WITH YOUR SPOUSE? 837 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,466 HOW MUCH SLEEP DID YOU GET LAST NIGHT? 838 00:30:46,466 --> 00:30:47,866 IS THIS THE TENTH 839 00:30:47,866 --> 00:30:49,800 OR THE HUNDREDTH ONE THAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT TODAY? 840 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,900 A MACHINE DOESN'T FALL INTO THOSE FOIBLES. 841 00:30:52,900 --> 00:30:54,933 HUMAN JUDGMENT IS A WONDERFUL THING, 842 00:30:54,933 --> 00:30:56,466 BUT IT IS BY ITS NATURE 843 00:30:56,466 --> 00:30:59,200 FLEXIBLE AND CHANGEABLE OVER TIME. 844 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,100 SO I DON'T HAVE TIME TO GO INTO DETAILS, 845 00:31:01,100 --> 00:31:04,200 BUT WHAT WE'VE DONE RECENTLY IS BEEN ABLE TO TAKE 846 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,866 THIS RANDOM FOREST, WHICH IS A COLLECTION OF DECISION TREES, 847 00:31:06,866 --> 00:31:07,966 SAY A THOUSAND, 848 00:31:07,966 --> 00:31:09,800 EACH DECISION TREE THEN CASTS A VOTE 849 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:10,900 AS TO WHETHER IT THINKS 850 00:31:10,900 --> 00:31:12,466 AN OBJECT BASED ON THE ATTRIBUTES-- 851 00:31:12,466 --> 00:31:14,300 THE DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE DV REPORT-- 852 00:31:14,300 --> 00:31:16,166 WHETHER IT SHOULD BE A PLANET, 853 00:31:16,166 --> 00:31:17,900 AN ASTROPHYSICAL FALSE-POSITIVE 854 00:31:17,900 --> 00:31:19,200 LIKE A BACKGROUND ECLIPSING BINARY, 855 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,100 OR WHETHER IT'S JUST AN ARTIFACT OF SOME SORT. 856 00:31:21,100 --> 00:31:24,600 AND IF YOU THEN TAKE THE VOTE FRACTION 857 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,033 FOR THE VOTE FOR "DUD" 858 00:31:27,033 --> 00:31:29,000 AND THE VOTE FRACTION FOR THE VOTE FOR "PLANET," 859 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,166 AND EACH CANDIDATE SIGNATURE 860 00:31:31,166 --> 00:31:33,266 THEN IS A POINT ON THIS GRAPH, RIGHT? 861 00:31:33,266 --> 00:31:34,933 'CAUSE EVERYTHING SUMS TO ONE. 862 00:31:34,933 --> 00:31:37,266 IF YOU'RE DOWN HERE, YOU'RE A DUD ON THE LEFT. 863 00:31:37,266 --> 00:31:38,500 IF YOU'RE OVER HERE, 864 00:31:38,500 --> 00:31:41,100 YOU'RE A ASTROPHYSICAL FALSE-POSITIVE. 865 00:31:41,100 --> 00:31:43,233 WHAT I'M SHOWING HERE, THOUGH, IS THAT 866 00:31:43,233 --> 00:31:44,433 WE CAN NOW COLOR EACH POINT 867 00:31:44,433 --> 00:31:47,066 AND ATTRIBUTE A POSTERIOR PROBABILITY 868 00:31:47,066 --> 00:31:48,533 THAT IT IS A PLANET, 869 00:31:48,533 --> 00:31:50,900 THAT IT IS A ASTROPHYSICAL FALSE-POSITIVE, 870 00:31:50,900 --> 00:31:52,700 OR THAT IT'S A DUD, 871 00:31:52,700 --> 00:31:55,833 SO NOW WE DON'T JUST HAVE A THUMBS UP OR A THUMBS DOWN. 872 00:31:55,833 --> 00:31:57,500 WE HAVE A RELIABILITY ESTIMATE. 873 00:31:57,500 --> 00:32:02,333 IS THIS 80% SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF 874 00:32:02,333 --> 00:32:04,766 SHOULD WE COUNT THIS AS 80% OF A PLANET 875 00:32:04,766 --> 00:32:08,166 OR .01% OF A PLANET? 876 00:32:08,166 --> 00:32:10,466 SO THIS WILL HELP US WITH THE STATISTICS 877 00:32:10,466 --> 00:32:12,766 THAT WE NEED IN ORDER TO FINISH THE JOB. 878 00:32:12,766 --> 00:32:15,066 SO AT THIS POINT, I'M GONNA TURN TO 879 00:32:15,066 --> 00:32:17,733 THE BRIDGE BETWEEN KEPLER AND TESS, AND THAT IS... 880 00:32:17,733 --> 00:32:19,333 EVERYBODY KNOWS-- TAKE OFF YOUR HATS-- 881 00:32:19,333 --> 00:32:21,900 THAT KEPLER DIED IN MAY OF 2012 882 00:32:21,900 --> 00:32:23,700 WHEN WE LOST OUR SECOND REACTION WHEEL, 883 00:32:23,700 --> 00:32:25,266 AND THERE WAS A LOT OF MOANING OVER THAT. 884 00:32:25,266 --> 00:32:26,466 WE WERE ALL CRUSHED. 885 00:32:26,466 --> 00:32:28,000 IT HAD BEEN A LONG, GOOD RIDE, 886 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,233 BUT WE WERE HOPING FOR ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR YEARS, 887 00:32:31,233 --> 00:32:32,533 BUT, YEA VERILY, 888 00:32:32,533 --> 00:32:34,700 THE BALL AEROSPACE TECHNICAL SERVICE CORPORATION 889 00:32:34,700 --> 00:32:37,033 CAME UP WITH A GREAT IDEA FOR HOW TO RESURRECT KEPLER, 890 00:32:37,033 --> 00:32:39,333 AND THE COMMUNITY CAME UP WITH A GREAT IDEA 891 00:32:39,333 --> 00:32:40,900 AS TO WHAT WE SHOULD DO WITH THIS MISSION. 892 00:32:40,900 --> 00:32:42,033 WE'RE DUBBING IT K2, 893 00:32:42,033 --> 00:32:43,266 AND IT WAS APPROVED BY THE SENIOR REVIEW 894 00:32:43,266 --> 00:32:46,000 EARLIER THIS YEAR. 895 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,266 KEPLER'S GONE THROUGH SOME CHANGES OVER THE YEARS. 896 00:32:48,266 --> 00:32:50,066 SO AT FIRST WHEN WE LAUNCHED, IT HAD FOUR REACTION WHEELS, 897 00:32:50,066 --> 00:32:51,900 AND IT THOUGHT ITSELF TO BE A GO-CART. 898 00:32:51,900 --> 00:32:55,033 THEN IN JUNE OF 2012, WE LOST ONE OF OUR REACTION WHEELS, 899 00:32:55,033 --> 00:32:56,766 AND IT BECAME A TRICYCLE, 900 00:32:56,766 --> 00:32:58,766 AND TRICYCLES ARE A LITTLE MORE STABLE THAN BICYCLES-- 901 00:32:58,766 --> 00:33:00,466 THAN GO-CARTS, 902 00:33:00,466 --> 00:33:03,100 AND, IN FACT, OUR POINTING BEHAVIOR 903 00:33:03,100 --> 00:33:04,300 WAS A LITTLE BIT BETTER WITH THREE WHEELS 904 00:33:04,300 --> 00:33:05,733 THAN IT WAS WITH FOUR. 905 00:33:05,733 --> 00:33:07,066 WE LAUNCHED WITH FOUR WHEELS. 906 00:33:07,066 --> 00:33:09,400 TWO OF THEM TURNED OUT TO NOT BE SO GOOD. 907 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,533 THEY STARTED MISBEHAVING SHORTLY AFTER LAUNCH. 908 00:33:11,533 --> 00:33:13,600 WE DIDN'T RECOGNIZE THAT UNTIL THE FIRST ONE FAILED, 909 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,033 AND WE WENT BACK AND DUG INTO THE ENGINEERING DATA, 910 00:33:16,033 --> 00:33:19,433 BUT THEN LAST MAY, WE LOST THE SECOND FICKLE WHEEL, 911 00:33:19,433 --> 00:33:21,033 AND WE'RE A BICYCLE NOW. 912 00:33:21,033 --> 00:33:23,366 BUT BICYCLES ARE GREAT. 913 00:33:23,366 --> 00:33:27,500 SO WE'RE ACTUALLY CONDUCTING OBSERVATIONS NOW WITH K2. 914 00:33:27,500 --> 00:33:29,700 THIS IS OUR FIRST LIGHT IMAGE IN THE ECLIPTIC, 915 00:33:29,700 --> 00:33:31,566 AND WE'VE CHOSEN FIELDS AROUND THE ECLIPTIC 916 00:33:31,566 --> 00:33:32,733 OR THE ORBITAL PLANE 917 00:33:32,733 --> 00:33:34,000 IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT THIS MISSION. 918 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:35,600 THE WAY IT WORKS IS THAT 919 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,033 WITH THE KEPLER SPACECRAFT... 920 00:33:40,366 --> 00:33:41,766 WE CAN USE THE REACTION WHEELS 921 00:33:41,766 --> 00:33:43,266 TO POINT ANYWHERE ON THE SKY WE WANT. 922 00:33:43,266 --> 00:33:44,733 WHAT WE CAN'T DO IS USE THE REACTION WHEELS 923 00:33:44,733 --> 00:33:45,933 TO CONTROL THE ROLL, 924 00:33:45,933 --> 00:33:48,300 BUT IF THAT'S THE SUN, AS LONG-- 925 00:33:48,300 --> 00:33:49,866 AND THIS IS THE ORBIT-- 926 00:33:49,866 --> 00:33:51,533 AS LONG AS I'VE GOT THE SUN 927 00:33:51,533 --> 00:33:53,500 ON THE MIDLINE OF THE SOLAR ARRAYS, 928 00:33:53,500 --> 00:33:56,033 IT'S ROUGHLY SYMMETRICAL, AND IT WANTS TO STAY THERE. 929 00:33:56,033 --> 00:33:57,366 AND SO WE ONLY HAVE TO ACTUATE 930 00:33:57,366 --> 00:33:58,866 THE THRUSTERS ONCE IN A WHILE 931 00:33:58,866 --> 00:34:00,466 TO BRING IT BACK TO POINT, 932 00:34:00,466 --> 00:34:02,533 KIND OF LIKE A ROWBOAT IN A STREAM 933 00:34:02,533 --> 00:34:03,933 TIED TO A TETHER, RIGHT? 934 00:34:03,933 --> 00:34:06,600 IT WANTS TO LINE UP WITH THE STREAM. 935 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,266 SO IF WE POINT IT THIS WAY, 936 00:34:08,266 --> 00:34:10,366 AS IT'S ORBITING AROUND THE SUN, 937 00:34:10,366 --> 00:34:11,766 THE SUN STAYS ON MIDLINE, 938 00:34:11,766 --> 00:34:13,833 WE CAN STAY POINTED AT THAT EMERGENCY EXIT, 939 00:34:13,833 --> 00:34:15,833 WHICH IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR EVERYBODY TO KNOW WHERE IT IS, 940 00:34:15,833 --> 00:34:17,266 FOR AS LONG AS 80 DAYS 941 00:34:17,266 --> 00:34:20,000 BEFORE WE HAVE TO FIND ANOTHER EMERGENCY EXIT. 942 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:21,433 SO WE--[laughs] 943 00:34:21,433 --> 00:34:23,566 WE DO THAT FOUR TIMES A YEAR, 944 00:34:23,566 --> 00:34:26,000 AND WE BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE ENOUGH FUEL ON BOARD 945 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,100 TO CONTINUE THIS MISSION... 946 00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,633 FOR ANOTHER 2 1/2 YEARS OR SO. 947 00:34:35,633 --> 00:34:37,333 SO THAT'S A VERY EXCITING MISSION. 948 00:34:37,333 --> 00:34:40,600 IT'S ALSO GONNA PAVE THE WAY TO TESS, WHICH IS THE NEXT ONE, 949 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,466 BECAUSE IT'S GONNA BE LOOKING IN FIELDS, 950 00:34:43,466 --> 00:34:44,866 LOOKING FOR PLANETS THAT ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE 951 00:34:44,866 --> 00:34:46,400 THAT TESS IS GONNA BE LOOKING FOR. 952 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,633 SO WE WERE VERY ELATED A YEAR AGO OR SO 953 00:34:48,633 --> 00:34:50,566 WHEN WE HEARD THAT NASA HAD SELECTED 954 00:34:50,566 --> 00:34:53,700 TESS FOR AN EXPLORER PROGRAM TO LAUNCH IN 2017 955 00:34:53,700 --> 00:34:56,100 TO LOOK FOR THE NEAREST AND BEST EXOPLANETS 956 00:34:56,100 --> 00:34:58,866 TO FOLLOW UP AND CHARACTERIZE FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS OR SO. 957 00:34:58,866 --> 00:35:00,466 WELL, IT DOES THIS 958 00:35:00,466 --> 00:35:02,533 FOLLOWING ON THE SUCCESS OF KEPLER. 959 00:35:02,533 --> 00:35:03,800 KEPLER LOOKS AT A FIELD OF VIEW 960 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:05,066 ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE PALM OF YOUR HAND 961 00:35:05,066 --> 00:35:06,400 HELD AT ARM'S LENGTH. 962 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,066 IT'S A LIGHT CONE ABOUT 3,000 LIGHT-YEARS DEEP 963 00:35:09,066 --> 00:35:10,466 AND THAT WIDE, 964 00:35:10,466 --> 00:35:12,200 BUT THERE ARE 400 FIELDS AROUND THE SKY 965 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:13,500 THAT YOU COULD POINT KEPLER AT 966 00:35:13,500 --> 00:35:16,233 WHEN IT HAD THREE OR MORE REACTION WHEELS. 967 00:35:16,233 --> 00:35:20,833 BUT TESS FOCUSES ITS ATTENTION ON THE NEAREST 200 LIGHT-YEARS, 968 00:35:20,833 --> 00:35:22,833 AND IT'S AN ALL-SKY SURVEY. 969 00:35:22,833 --> 00:35:24,700 AND THE WAY THAT WORKS, 970 00:35:24,700 --> 00:35:26,500 BECAUSE WE CAN'T OBSERVE ALL THE SKY AT ONCE, 971 00:35:26,500 --> 00:35:28,666 IS THAT IT OBSERVES IT IN 26 DIFFERENT CHUNKS. 972 00:35:28,666 --> 00:35:30,433 SO IT'S FOUR TELESCOPES, 973 00:35:30,433 --> 00:35:32,733 EACH OF WHICH HAS 24 BY 24 DEGREE FIELD OF VIEW 974 00:35:32,733 --> 00:35:33,933 STACKED ONE ON TOP OF THE OTHER, 975 00:35:33,933 --> 00:35:36,900 SO IT'S 24 BY 96 DEGREES HIGH, 976 00:35:36,900 --> 00:35:39,700 AND YOU GO FROM THE EQUATOR A LITTLE BIT OVER THE POLE, 977 00:35:39,700 --> 00:35:42,900 AND SO YOU COVER ONE OF THESE SWATHS-- 978 00:35:42,900 --> 00:35:45,033 IF YOU CAN JUST BARELY SEE THEM-- 979 00:35:45,033 --> 00:35:46,433 LIKE THAT, 980 00:35:46,433 --> 00:35:49,166 AND, OF COURSE, WE'RE ALWAYS COVERING THIS SPOT HERE 981 00:35:49,166 --> 00:35:51,066 WHILE WE'RE OPERATING IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. 982 00:35:51,066 --> 00:35:54,200 WE GET A CONTINUOUS YEAR OF COVERAGE ON 500 SQUARE DEGREES, 983 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,200 WHICH IS FIVE TIMES THE SIZE OF THE KEPLER FIELD OF VIEW. 984 00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,300 MOST STARS ARE GONNA BE OBSERVED ONLY FOR ONE MONTH--27 DAYS-- 985 00:36:00,300 --> 00:36:02,066 SO WE'RE LOOKING FOR SHORT PERIOD PLANETS, 986 00:36:02,066 --> 00:36:04,200 BUT WE'RE LOOKING FOR SUPER-EARTHS AND EARTHS, 987 00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,133 AND THOSE ARE ACTUALLY VERY EXCITING, 988 00:36:06,133 --> 00:36:07,666 BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE KINDS OF PLANETS 989 00:36:07,666 --> 00:36:10,000 THAT JAMES WEBB AND OTHER ASSETS IN THE NEAR FUTURE 990 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,333 WILL BE ABLE TO FOLLOW UP AND CHARACTERIZE, 991 00:36:11,333 --> 00:36:13,400 SO THAT WE CAN LEARN MORE ABOUT THEIR ATMOSPHERES 992 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,200 AND WHAT MAKES THEM TICK. 993 00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:20,033 TESS IS A SMALL SPACECRAFT AND AN INSTRUMENT 994 00:36:20,033 --> 00:36:21,533 WITH A VERY LARGE APPETITE. 995 00:36:21,533 --> 00:36:23,500 THIS IS A VERY HAPPY PROPOSAL MANAGER 996 00:36:23,500 --> 00:36:26,400 WITH ONE OF OUR CAMERAS, RIGHT? 997 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:27,733 NOW, THIS MAN AND THIS INSTRUMENT 998 00:36:27,733 --> 00:36:28,866 COULD FIT IN THE BARREL 999 00:36:28,866 --> 00:36:31,433 OF THE TELESCOPE OF KEPLER QUITE EASILY, 1000 00:36:31,433 --> 00:36:34,400 JUST TO GIVE YOU SOME SIZE REFERENCE THERE. 1001 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:35,733 AND THIS IS A MOCK-UP, 1002 00:36:35,733 --> 00:36:38,700 A FULL-SCALE REPLICA OF THE TESS CONCEPT SPACECRAFT 1003 00:36:38,700 --> 00:36:40,000 AND INSTRUMENT, 1004 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:41,933 ALTHOUGH YOU CAN'T SEE THE CAMERAS IN THERE. 1005 00:36:41,933 --> 00:36:43,433 WITH GEORGE RICKER, SARA SEAGER-- 1006 00:36:43,433 --> 00:36:44,933 PROFESSOR SARA SEAGER, JOSH WINN, 1007 00:36:44,933 --> 00:36:46,833 AND ROLAND VANDERSPEK, 1008 00:36:46,833 --> 00:36:49,233 OUR DEPUTY PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR, 1009 00:36:49,233 --> 00:36:50,966 AND GEORGE IS OUR PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR. 1010 00:36:50,966 --> 00:36:53,833 THEY'RE ALL AT M.I.T. 1011 00:36:53,833 --> 00:36:56,400 IF YOU LOOK AT THE SCIENCE TEAM FOR KEPLER AND FOR TESS, 1012 00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,833 YOU'LL FIND THAT THERE'S A STRONG OVERLAP. 1013 00:36:58,833 --> 00:37:01,400 THERE'S A HUGE INTEREST IN TESS. 1014 00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,166 THERE'S A HUGE INTEREST IN K2, 1015 00:37:03,166 --> 00:37:04,433 AND ALL OF IT HAS COME ABOUT 1016 00:37:04,433 --> 00:37:08,666 BECAUSE OF THE SUCCESS OF KEPLER. 1017 00:37:08,666 --> 00:37:12,133 TESS WILL IDENTIFY THE BEST AND SMALLEST EXOPLANET TARGETS, 1018 00:37:12,133 --> 00:37:15,800 BECAUSE IT'S LOOKING AT STARS THAT ARE 100 TIMES BRIGHTER, 1019 00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,933 SO YOU HAVE 100 TIMES AS MANY PHOTONS TO WORK WITH 1020 00:37:17,933 --> 00:37:21,133 TO GET SPECTRA AS YOU DO WITH THE TYPICAL KEPLER TARGET. 1021 00:37:21,133 --> 00:37:23,300 WE'LL BE ABLE TO GET MASSES BECAUSE ALMOST ALL OF THEM 1022 00:37:23,300 --> 00:37:25,900 WILL BE SUBJECTED TO RADIAL VELOCITY. 1023 00:37:25,900 --> 00:37:27,833 WE CAN REACH THEM WITH RADIAL VELOCITY. 1024 00:37:27,833 --> 00:37:29,300 WITH KEPLER, WE CAN ONLY GET MASSES 1025 00:37:29,300 --> 00:37:31,400 FOR A SMALL FRACTION OF THE PLANETS. 1026 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,366 THOSE ARE THE MOST EXCITING FINDS WE HAVE, 1027 00:37:33,366 --> 00:37:34,700 BECAUSE ONCE YOU HAVE THE MASS AND THE SIZE, 1028 00:37:34,700 --> 00:37:35,966 YOU CAN ESTIMATE THE DENSITY 1029 00:37:35,966 --> 00:37:39,200 AND THEN START ARGUING OVER WHAT IT'S MADE OF. 1030 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,366 AND WE'LL BE INDENTIFYING THESE PLANETS 1031 00:37:41,366 --> 00:37:43,666 AND FOLLOWING THEM UP WITH JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE-- 1032 00:37:43,666 --> 00:37:45,966 EXTREMELY LARGE TELESCOPES, 1033 00:37:45,966 --> 00:37:48,633 PROBES, AND OTHER LARGE MISSIONS. 1034 00:37:48,633 --> 00:37:50,266 AND EVENTUALLY WHAT WE HOPE TO DO 1035 00:37:50,266 --> 00:37:52,533 IS TO DO TRANSMISSION SPECTROSCOPY 1036 00:37:52,533 --> 00:37:55,366 IN TRANSIT BY TAKING A SPECTRUM OUT OF TRANSIT 1037 00:37:55,366 --> 00:37:56,800 AND TAKING ONE IN 1038 00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,433 AND NOTING THAT A SMALL FRACTION OF THE PHOTONS FROM THE STAR 1039 00:37:59,433 --> 00:38:01,766 PASS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE ON THEIR WAY TO THE TELESCOPE, 1040 00:38:01,766 --> 00:38:04,000 SO THAT WE CAN ACTUALLY ANALYZE THE SPECTRUM 1041 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,133 AND LOOK FOR SPECIES ASSOCIATED WITH LIFE. 1042 00:38:07,133 --> 00:38:09,833 WE WANT TO LOOK FOR OZONE AND OXYGEN, WATER VAPOR, 1043 00:38:09,833 --> 00:38:11,866 METHANE, CO2. 1044 00:38:11,866 --> 00:38:13,466 PLANTS LOVE CARBON DIOXIDE. 1045 00:38:13,466 --> 00:38:18,200 IF YOU HAVE CARBON DIOXIDE AND WATER, 1046 00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,566 AND THEN YOU MIGHT HAVE PLANTS, 1047 00:38:21,566 --> 00:38:22,966 AND AS BILL BORUCKI SAID THIS MORNING, 1048 00:38:22,966 --> 00:38:24,433 IF YOU HAVE PLANTS AND YOU HAVE WATER, 1049 00:38:24,433 --> 00:38:25,866 YOU MIGHT HAVE FLYING FISH, 1050 00:38:25,866 --> 00:38:30,433 BECAUSE YOU NOW HAVE OXYGEN FOR THE FLYING FISH TO BREATHE. 1051 00:38:30,433 --> 00:38:33,166 SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT I HOPE I SEE 1052 00:38:33,166 --> 00:38:34,600 IN MY OWN LIFETIME. 1053 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:38,100 I HAD NO IDEA 20 YEARS AGO WHEN I STARTED WORKING ON THIS 1054 00:38:38,100 --> 00:38:40,133 THAT WE WOULD BE SO SUCCESSFUL, 1055 00:38:40,133 --> 00:38:41,566 OR THAT I'D BE STANDING HERE TODAY 1056 00:38:41,566 --> 00:38:44,100 TALKING ABOUT THE PHENOMENAL SUCCESSES OF KEPLER, 1057 00:38:44,100 --> 00:38:46,666 AND IT'S THE PRODUCT OF MANY YEARS OF EFFORT 1058 00:38:46,666 --> 00:38:48,833 ON THOUSANDS OF INDIVIDUALS' PART, 1059 00:38:48,833 --> 00:38:51,500 AND A LOT OF IT HAS TAKEN PLACE HERE 1060 00:38:51,500 --> 00:38:54,066 IN A VERY MAGICAL PLACE, NASA AMES RESEARCH CENTER. 1061 00:38:54,066 --> 00:38:56,866 IT'S JUST A HOTBED OF ENTHUSIASM, INNOVATION, 1062 00:38:56,866 --> 00:39:00,966 AND IN ALL ASPECTS FOR SPACE SCIENCE. 1063 00:39:02,900 --> 00:39:04,533 SO HERE'S MY SUMMARY. 1064 00:39:04,533 --> 00:39:06,433 KEPLER HAS RETURNED A BONANZA OF PLANETS, 1065 00:39:06,433 --> 00:39:08,133 FAR MORE THAN ANY OTHER MISSION OR PROJECT, 1066 00:39:08,133 --> 00:39:10,433 BUT FAR MORE IMPORTANTLY, THEY'RE MUCH MORE INTERESTING 1067 00:39:10,433 --> 00:39:12,100 IN TERMS OF LEADING US DOWN THE ROAD 1068 00:39:12,100 --> 00:39:14,000 TO FIND EVIDENCE FOR LIFE. 1069 00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,266 THE FIRST STEP IS TO DEFINE THE FREQUENCY OF PLANETS 1070 00:39:17,266 --> 00:39:20,066 AND WHERE YOU FIND THEM. 1071 00:39:20,066 --> 00:39:22,033 WE DO HAVE ABOUT 3 1/2 YEARS TO GO 1072 00:39:22,033 --> 00:39:24,233 WHERE WE NEED TO CHARACTERIZE THE COMPLETENESS AND RELIABILITY 1073 00:39:24,233 --> 00:39:26,700 OF THE KEPLER MISSION. 1074 00:39:26,700 --> 00:39:29,166 MACHINE LEARNING I THINK IS GONNA REALLY TAKE OVER, 1075 00:39:29,166 --> 00:39:31,866 BECAUSE IT REALLY IS THE ONLY THING PRACTICAL 1076 00:39:31,866 --> 00:39:34,200 TO DO THE JOB IN A CONSISTENT AND THOROUGH FASHION, 1077 00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,700 AND IT'S TESTABLE. HUMANS ARE NOT TESTABLE, 1078 00:39:36,700 --> 00:39:38,333 NOT IN THIS KIND OF CONTEXT. 1079 00:39:38,333 --> 00:39:40,666 AND OTHER MISSIONS LIKE TESS AND PLATO, 1080 00:39:40,666 --> 00:39:43,166 A EUROPEAN MISSION THAT MIGHT FLY IN 2024 1081 00:39:43,166 --> 00:39:45,666 THAT WAS JUST SELECTED FOR LAUNCH LAST YEAR, 1082 00:39:45,666 --> 00:39:48,466 OR EARLIER THIS YEAR-- EXCUSE ME-- 1083 00:39:48,466 --> 00:39:51,233 ARE GONNA LOOK AT A MUCH LARGER REAL ESTATE ON THE SKY, 1084 00:39:51,233 --> 00:39:53,133 AND THEY'LL NEED MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES. 1085 00:39:53,133 --> 00:39:55,566 ASTRONOMERS ARE BEING DRAGGED KICKING AND SCREAMING 1086 00:39:55,566 --> 00:39:57,000 TO THE BIG DATA ERA, 1087 00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,000 WHERE INSTEAD OF FOCUSING OUR OWN EYES 1088 00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:00,833 AND OUR OWN HANDS ON A PIECE OF DATA, 1089 00:40:00,833 --> 00:40:04,600 WE NEED TO TRAIN MACHINES TO HELP US DO THAT JOB. 1090 00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:05,833 K2 IS VERY EXCITING. 1091 00:40:05,833 --> 00:40:07,200 IT'S GOTTEN UNDERWAY, 1092 00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:09,500 AND IT SHOULD BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN KEPLER AND TESS 1093 00:40:09,500 --> 00:40:11,266 AND TRAIN A LOT OF THE PEOPLE 1094 00:40:11,266 --> 00:40:13,533 WHO ARE GONNA BE DOING FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS FOR TESS 1095 00:40:13,533 --> 00:40:14,900 ON VERY SIMILAR OBJECTS. 1096 00:40:14,900 --> 00:40:17,133 WITH TESS, EVERY MONTH, YOU GET A SLUG OF DATA, 1097 00:40:17,133 --> 00:40:18,866 AND YOU GET A SLEW OF PLANETS TO FOLLOW UP, 1098 00:40:18,866 --> 00:40:22,000 SO THEY'RE GONNA HAVE TO KEEP PACE. 1099 00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:23,733 AND WE HOPE-- CROSSING OUR FINGERS-- 1100 00:40:23,733 --> 00:40:27,100 THAT TESS WILL FLY IN AUGUST OF 2017 1101 00:40:27,100 --> 00:40:30,500 AND START MAPPING THE EARTH- AND SUPER-EARTH-SIZE PLANETS 1102 00:40:30,500 --> 00:40:33,800 ACROSS THE SKY. 1103 00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,200 SO...HOW AM I DOING ON TIME? 1104 00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:37,500 - THREE MINUTES. 1105 00:40:37,500 --> 00:40:39,300 - ALL RIGHT, I'M GONNA COME BACK TO THIS. 1106 00:40:39,300 --> 00:40:42,533 SO FOR THOSE OF YOU SONOPHILES, 1107 00:40:42,533 --> 00:40:44,400 THIS IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE OBJECTS. 1108 00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:45,700 IT'S AN ECLIPSING BINARY. 1109 00:40:45,700 --> 00:40:47,566 THIS IS TIME IN DAYS. 1110 00:40:47,566 --> 00:40:49,200 THE IS THE CHANGE IN INTENSITY, 1111 00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:50,966 AND THIS IS AN ECLIPSING BINARY. 1112 00:40:50,966 --> 00:40:52,966 BUT YOU SEE THAT THERE'S SOMETHING WRONG 1113 00:40:52,966 --> 00:40:54,166 WITH THE PRINTER HERE, 1114 00:40:54,166 --> 00:40:55,766 BECAUSE THERE ARE ALL THESE SMEARS HERE, 1115 00:40:55,766 --> 00:40:57,000 AND IF YOU FOCUS IN, 1116 00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:58,933 YOU SEE THEY'RE HIGH-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS. 1117 00:40:58,933 --> 00:41:00,166 SO THIS IS A PAIR OF STARS, 1118 00:41:00,166 --> 00:41:01,433 AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH 1119 00:41:01,433 --> 00:41:03,066 HAS HIGH-FREQUENCY PULSATIONS GOING ON. 1120 00:41:03,066 --> 00:41:04,900 I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE PHYSICAL MECHANISM IS. 1121 00:41:04,900 --> 00:41:08,300 THAT'S WHAT OUR ASTEROSEISMOLOGISTS ARE FOR. 1122 00:41:08,300 --> 00:41:10,466 AND THIS IS THE FOURIER DOMAIN, 1123 00:41:10,466 --> 00:41:12,000 SO THIS IS A PERIODOGRAM. 1124 00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,733 BUT IT SOUNDS REALLY COOL, SO I'M GONNA PLAY IT FOR YOU. 1125 00:41:23,233 --> 00:41:24,700 OH, LET'S SEE. 1126 00:41:24,700 --> 00:41:26,633 LET'S TRY THIS ONE. 1127 00:41:29,566 --> 00:41:31,200 LET'S TRY THIS. 1128 00:41:35,066 --> 00:41:40,133 [high-pitched tone oscillating over intermittent thumping] 1129 00:41:40,133 --> 00:41:42,333 SO THE BASS THUMPING IS REALLY THE ECLIPSE, 1130 00:41:42,333 --> 00:41:44,833 SO THAT'S NOT THERMOMECHANICAL ENERGY, 1131 00:41:44,833 --> 00:41:46,333 BUT THE WHISTLING IS STUFF 1132 00:41:46,333 --> 00:41:48,400 GOING INSIDE THE ENVELOPE OF THE STAR. 1133 00:41:50,366 --> 00:41:52,266 AND THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING STAR, 1134 00:41:52,266 --> 00:41:55,233 BECAUSE WE THOUGHT FOR HALF A SECOND 1135 00:41:55,233 --> 00:41:56,600 THIS MIGHT BE A BLACK HOLE, 1136 00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,466 AND IF SO, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A PHENOMENAL DISCOVERY. 1137 00:41:59,466 --> 00:42:02,233 BUT REASON TOOK OVER AFTER HALF A SECOND. 1138 00:42:02,233 --> 00:42:03,866 [rapid thumping] 1139 00:42:03,866 --> 00:42:07,833 AND THIS IS WHAT WE DUBBED AS A HEARTBEAT STAR. 1140 00:42:07,833 --> 00:42:09,700 [thumping] 1141 00:42:14,666 --> 00:42:16,433 AND I'LL EXPLAIN WHAT'S GOING HERE. 1142 00:42:16,433 --> 00:42:17,466 SO HERE'S THE LIGHT CURVE. 1143 00:42:17,466 --> 00:42:20,533 THIS IS TIME IN DAYS, 1144 00:42:20,533 --> 00:42:24,166 AND IT'S 42 DAYS IN BETWEEN EACH OF THESE SPIKES, 1145 00:42:24,166 --> 00:42:26,333 AND WHAT'S HAPPENING IS WE HAVE TWO "A" STARS 1146 00:42:26,333 --> 00:42:27,900 THAT ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL, 1147 00:42:27,900 --> 00:42:29,400 AND THEY'RE IN A HIGHLY ELLIPTIC ORBIT, 1148 00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,100 AND THEY'RE BROADSIDE. THEY ACTUALLY DON'T TRAN-- 1149 00:42:31,100 --> 00:42:34,400 THEY DON'T ECLIPSE EACH OTHER, 1150 00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:35,966 BUT WHEN THEY GET CLOSE TOGETHER, 1151 00:42:35,966 --> 00:42:37,800 THEY PERTURB EACH OTHER GRAVITATIONALLY, 1152 00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:39,433 AND THEY RADIATE ENERGY OFF EACH OTHER, 1153 00:42:39,433 --> 00:42:40,766 AND THEY CHANGE THEIR SHAPES, 1154 00:42:40,766 --> 00:42:43,233 SO YOU GET A BIG SPIKE EVERY 42 DAYS, 1155 00:42:43,233 --> 00:42:44,866 AND YOU HAVE ALL THESE OVERTONES 1156 00:42:44,866 --> 00:42:46,300 THAT ARE BEING EXCITED. 1157 00:42:46,300 --> 00:42:48,833 I THINK THE 91st OVERTONE IS THE ONE THAT'S DOMINANT 1158 00:42:48,833 --> 00:42:50,400 IF YOU LOOK IN THE FOURIER DOMAIN. 1159 00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:54,100 AND SO YOU END UP WITH THIS HIGHLY PERIODIC STRUCTURE 1160 00:42:54,100 --> 00:42:56,333 ON TOP OF A FUNDAMENTAL AT 42 DAYS. 1161 00:42:56,333 --> 00:42:59,433 AND THIS IS A NEW CLASS OF BINARIES 1162 00:42:59,433 --> 00:43:02,766 THAT HAS BEEN ELUCIDATED BY KEPLER, 1163 00:43:02,766 --> 00:43:05,666 AND THEY ALSO SOUND REALLY COOL. 1164 00:43:05,666 --> 00:43:08,466 SO WITH THAT, I'D LIKE TO OPEN THE FLOOR FOR QUESTIONS 1165 00:43:08,466 --> 00:43:10,000 IF ANYBODY HAS ANY. 1166 00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,066 [applause] 1167 00:43:24,933 --> 00:43:26,300 - GOOD AFTERNOON. 1168 00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:31,766 [amplified] CAN YOU HEAR ME? AH, GOOD. 1169 00:43:31,766 --> 00:43:33,600 IS THIS THING ON? 1170 00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:39,800 SO IF I GO BACK TO YOUR PLOT OF ETA EARTH DISTRIBUTIONS... 1171 00:43:45,833 --> 00:43:47,833 YEAH, THAT'S THE ONE. 1172 00:43:47,833 --> 00:43:51,333 ARE YOU COMFORTABLE, CONFIDENT SAYING 1173 00:43:51,333 --> 00:43:54,800 THAT THE VALUES NEAR ZERO ARE RULED OUT? 1174 00:43:57,300 --> 00:43:59,433 'CAUSE NONE OF THOSE PLOTS GOES DOWN TO ZERO, 1175 00:43:59,433 --> 00:44:01,833 AND I THINK IF IT'S TRUE THAT... 1176 00:44:01,833 --> 00:44:04,866 THAT ZERO IS... 1177 00:44:04,866 --> 00:44:07,133 OR EFFECTIVELY ZERO IS RULED OUT, 1178 00:44:07,133 --> 00:44:09,000 THAT'S A VERY EXCITING RESULT. 1179 00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,266 - I PERSONALLY DO THINK IT'S RULED OUT. 1180 00:44:11,266 --> 00:44:16,366 THESE OTHER ANALYSES ARE EITHER MAKING REASONABLE, 1181 00:44:16,366 --> 00:44:18,566 BUT SOMEWHAT AD HOC AND WRONG ASSUMPTIONS 1182 00:44:18,566 --> 00:44:21,333 ABOUT THE COMPLETENESS AND RELIABILITY OF THE SAMPLE, 1183 00:44:21,333 --> 00:44:24,433 AND ONE IS BASICALLY A PIPELINE 1184 00:44:24,433 --> 00:44:27,233 THAT WAS BUILT BY A GRADUATE STUDENT 1185 00:44:27,233 --> 00:44:30,466 THAT'S JUST NOT QUITE AS SENSITIVE AS OURS IS, 1186 00:44:30,466 --> 00:44:35,300 AND HE EVEN ACKNOWLEDGES IT'S A VERY PRELIMINARY RESULT. 1187 00:44:35,300 --> 00:44:36,566 NATALIE WOULD REMIND YOU, 1188 00:44:36,566 --> 00:44:38,233 AND BILL BORUCKI REMINDED FOLKS THIS MORNING, 1189 00:44:38,233 --> 00:44:39,766 THAT WE HAVE YET TO DISCOVER 1190 00:44:39,766 --> 00:44:41,500 AN EARTH-SIZE PLANET IN THE HABITABLE ZONE 1191 00:44:41,500 --> 00:44:43,866 OF A SUN ANALOG STAR. 1192 00:44:43,866 --> 00:44:45,066 THAT'S STILL THE HOLY GRAIL 1193 00:44:45,066 --> 00:44:46,600 THAT WE'RE STILL PURSUING IN THE DATA. 1194 00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,366 AND SO, IN SOME SENSE, 1195 00:44:49,366 --> 00:44:51,033 THESE RESULTS ARE EXTRAPOLATIONS, 1196 00:44:51,033 --> 00:44:53,333 BUT WE'VE GOT A LARGER SAMPLE OURSELVES NOW, 1197 00:44:53,333 --> 00:44:54,900 AND WHAT WE'RE DOING IS TRYING TO UNDERSTAND 1198 00:44:54,900 --> 00:44:58,600 THE SENSITIVITY OF THE OUTCOME OF THE ANALYSIS, 1199 00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,366 BASED ON THE EXTREMES OF OUR KNOWLEDGE 1200 00:45:02,366 --> 00:45:03,966 OF WHAT'S GOING INTO THE CALCULATIONS 1201 00:45:03,966 --> 00:45:06,366 AND WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE SKY AND IN OUR INSTRUMENT. 1202 00:45:06,366 --> 00:45:10,033 BUT I'M COMFORTABLE WITH... 1203 00:45:10,033 --> 00:45:12,133 WITH RIGHT NOW A THIRD OF THE STARS THAT YOU LOOK AT 1204 00:45:12,133 --> 00:45:13,266 THAT ARE BURNING HYDROGEN 1205 00:45:13,266 --> 00:45:14,933 HAVE A ONE- TO TWO-EARTH-RADIUS PLANET. 1206 00:45:14,933 --> 00:45:16,466 I THINK THAT'S THE BEST BET WE HAVE. 1207 00:45:16,466 --> 00:45:20,100 AND IN THE END, I THINK WE'RE GONNA HAVE A VERY GOOD RESULT. 1208 00:45:24,300 --> 00:45:25,533 - HI. 1209 00:45:25,533 --> 00:45:28,000 BASED ON WHAT YOU'VE SEEN SO FAR, 1210 00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:31,800 WHAT WOULD YOU SAY IS A TYPICAL STELLAR PLANETARY SYSTEM, 1211 00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:33,800 AND HOW WOULD IT BE DIFFERENT FROM OURS? 1212 00:45:35,166 --> 00:45:37,000 - WELL, IT'S KIND OF LIKE GOING TO THE ZOO. 1213 00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,333 SO WHAT'S THE TYPICAL ANIMAL AT THE ZOO LOOK LIKE? 1214 00:45:39,333 --> 00:45:41,100 I'M NOT SURE IF I CAN POINT TO JUST ONE ANIMAL AND SAY, 1215 00:45:41,100 --> 00:45:44,100 "THAT'S WHAT YOU SEE WHEN YOU GO TO THE ZOO." 1216 00:45:44,100 --> 00:45:47,100 HOWEVER, WE HAVE AN ENORMOUS NUMBER 1217 00:45:47,100 --> 00:45:50,200 OF THESE VERY COMPACT MULTIPLANET SYSTEMS, 1218 00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:51,600 AND THOSE SEEM TO BE IN SOME SENSE, 1219 00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:52,933 BECAUSE WE SEE SO MANY OF THEM, 1220 00:45:52,933 --> 00:45:57,800 THAT SEEMS TO BE A VERY PREDOMINANT HIERARCHY 1221 00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:01,066 OR TYPOLOGY FOR US TO FIND THESE PLANETARY SYSTEMS IN. 1222 00:46:01,066 --> 00:46:04,033 SO KEEP IN MIND KEPLER-11, WHICH WAS THE POSTER CHILD 1223 00:46:04,033 --> 00:46:05,500 FOR MULTIPLE PLANET SYSTEMS, 1224 00:46:05,500 --> 00:46:08,033 DISCOVERED FAIRLY EARLY IN KEPLER'S MISSION, 1225 00:46:08,033 --> 00:46:09,866 HAD SIX PLANETS, THE FIVE INNERMOST OF WHICH 1226 00:46:09,866 --> 00:46:11,400 ARE WITHIN THE ORBIT OF MERCURY 1227 00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:13,166 IN TERMS OF THEIR DISTANCE FROM THEIR STAR, 1228 00:46:13,166 --> 00:46:18,000 THE OUTER OF WHICH IS WITHIN THE ORBIT OF VENUS. 1229 00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:21,933 SO NATURE SEEMS TO HAVE A PREDISPOSITION 1230 00:46:21,933 --> 00:46:25,200 TO FORMING PLANETARY SYSTEMS THAT ARE HIGHLY COPLANAR 1231 00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:27,533 AND THAT ARE MUCH MORE DYNAMICALLY PACKED 1232 00:46:27,533 --> 00:46:28,633 THAN OUR OWN SYSTEM, 1233 00:46:28,633 --> 00:46:30,066 AND SO WE BELIEVE THAT THESE SYSTEMS 1234 00:46:30,066 --> 00:46:31,466 ACTUALLY DIDN'T START OUT THAT WAY. 1235 00:46:31,466 --> 00:46:32,766 WE BELIEVE THEY EVOLVED. 1236 00:46:32,766 --> 00:46:34,633 BUT, YOU KNOW, WE LOOK AT OUR OWN SOLAR SYSTEM, 1237 00:46:34,633 --> 00:46:36,766 WE THINK, OH, IT'S BEEN LIKE THIS FOR A LONG TIME. 1238 00:46:36,766 --> 00:46:38,666 OUR OWN SOLAR SYSTEM HAS EVOLVED, TOO, 1239 00:46:38,666 --> 00:46:43,833 BUT THE DEGREE TO WHICH THESE SYSTEMS HAVE EVOLVED 1240 00:46:43,833 --> 00:46:45,300 IS VERY MARKED. 1241 00:46:45,300 --> 00:46:47,766 INDEED, THE FIRST PLANETS WE FOUND WERE THESE HOT JUPITERS, 1242 00:46:47,766 --> 00:46:50,333 WHICH MUST HAVE MIGRATED IN FROM THE OUTSIDE 1243 00:46:50,333 --> 00:46:51,766 AND COULD NOT HAVE FORMED 1244 00:46:51,766 --> 00:46:54,933 YOU KNOW, AT .04 A.U. FROM THEIR STAR, RIGHT? 1245 00:46:54,933 --> 00:46:57,366 SO CHANGE SEEMS TO BE THE RULE, 1246 00:46:57,366 --> 00:46:59,900 AND WE'RE TRYING TO ASSEMBLE ENOUGH EXAMPLES 1247 00:46:59,900 --> 00:47:01,966 SO THAT WE CAN START TEASING OUT THE RULES 1248 00:47:01,966 --> 00:47:04,633 LYING UNDERNEATH WHAT WE SEE IN NATURE. 1249 00:47:07,533 --> 00:47:11,033 - SO PLEASE JOIN ME IN THANKING DR. JON JENKINS. 1250 00:47:11,033 --> 00:47:13,600 [applause] 1251 00:47:22,166 --> 00:47:24,100 I SEE THAT WE DO HAVE ONE MORE QUESTION, 1252 00:47:24,100 --> 00:47:25,733 SO LET'S GO AHEAD AND PUT THAT IN THERE. 1253 00:47:31,466 --> 00:47:33,333 - I'M JUST CURIOUS TO KNOW 1254 00:47:33,333 --> 00:47:36,200 WHAT IS THE LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF ALL THESE DISCOVERIES. 1255 00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,400 CAN THE U.S. CLAIM THE LAND OF ALL THESE PLANETS? 1256 00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:40,900 - [chuckles] 1257 00:47:40,900 --> 00:47:43,333 - I'LL HAVE TO TURN THAT OVER TO ONE OF OUR BOSSES, 1258 00:47:43,333 --> 00:47:44,633 MICHAEL BICAY HERE. 1259 00:47:44,633 --> 00:47:46,033 PERHAPS HE COULD ANSWER THAT QUESTION. 1260 00:47:46,033 --> 00:47:47,733 [laughs] 1261 00:47:47,733 --> 00:47:49,900 WELL, I'M NO EXPERT, 1262 00:47:49,900 --> 00:47:51,400 BUT I BELIEVE THE SPACE ACT TREATY 1263 00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,500 PROHIBITS US FROM CLAIMING LAND AS OUR OWN, 1264 00:47:54,500 --> 00:47:56,333 AT LEAST ON OTHER PLANETS IN OUR SOLAR SYSTEM. 1265 00:47:56,333 --> 00:47:58,000 I WOULD SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WOULD 1266 00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,066 NOT PERTAIN TO OTHER PLANETS, BUT, OF COURSE, 1267 00:48:00,066 --> 00:48:01,933 BY THE INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION'S 1268 00:48:01,933 --> 00:48:03,000 DEFINITION OF A PLANET, 1269 00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:04,500 NONE OF THESE ARE PLANETS ANYWAY. 1270 00:48:08,900 --> 00:48:11,600 - OKAY, ON THAT NOTE, THANK YOU AGAIN. 1271 00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,500 [applause]